Student or educator? Sign up with your school email and get 6 months of Pro free.
CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 266

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 33 of the 33 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Prediction of Incident Heart Failure in General Practice: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Open access
Agarwal, Sunil K., Chambless, Lloyd E., Ballantyne, Christie M., Astor, Brad, Bertoni, Alain G., Chang, Patricia P., Folsom, Aaron R., He, Max, Hoogeveen, Ron C., Ni, Hanyu, Quibrera, Pedro M., Rosamond, Wayne D., Russell, Stuart D., Shahar, Eyal, Heiss, Gerardo·2012·Circulation: Heart Failure
DOI 10.1161/circheartfailure.111.964841
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

Background—: A simple and effective heart failure (HF) risk score would facilitate the primary prevention and early diagnosis of HF in general practice. We examined the external validity of existing HF risk scores, optimized a 10-year HF risk function, and examined the incremental value of several biomarkers, including N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide. Methods and Results—: During 15.5 years (210 102 person-years of follow-up), 1487 HF events were recorded among 13 555 members of the biethnic Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study cohort. The area under curve from the Framingham-published, Framingham-recalibrated, Health ABC HF recalibrated, and ARIC risk scores were 0.610, 0.762, 0.783, and 0.797, respectively. On addition of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, the optimism-corrected area under curve of the ARIC HF risk score increased from 0.773 (95% CI, 0.753–0.787) to 0.805 (95% CI, 0.792–0.820). Inclusion of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide improved the overall classification of recalibrated Framingham, recalibrated Health ABC, and ARIC risk scores by 18%, 12%, and 13%, respectively. In contrast, cystatin C or high-sensitivity C-reactive protein did not add toward incremental risk prediction. Conclusions—: The ARIC HF risk score is more parsimonious yet performs slightly better than the extant risk scores in predicting 10-year risk of incident HF. The inclusion of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide markedly improves HF risk prediction. A simplified risk score restricted to a patient’s age, race, sex, and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide performs comparably to the full score (area under curve, 0.745) and is suitable for automated reporting from laboratory panels and electronic medical records.

Overview

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1161/circheartfailure.111.964841

Cites

33 of 33 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Verification

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Citations

Cites

Show all 33 references

Cited by

See all 266

Metadata

Authors
Agarwal, S. K., Chambless, L. E., Ballantyne, C. M., Astor, B., Bertoni, A. G., Chang, P. P., Folsom, A. R., He, M., Hoogeveen, R. C., Ni, H., Quibrera, P. M., Rosamond, W. D., Russell, S. D., Shahar, E., & Heiss, G.
Venue
Circulation: Heart Failure
Publisher
Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)
Published
2012-07
Volume
5
Issue
4
Pages
422-429
ISSN
  • 1941-3289 (ISSN-L)
  • 1941-3297
DOI
10.1161/circheartfailure.111.964841
OpenAlex
W2623867926
Cited by
266
References
33
FWCI
5.37
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
green

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review

How to cite

Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.

This page
CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Prediction of Incident Heart Failure in General Practice: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1161/circheartfailure.111.964841
The paper
Agarwal, S. K., Chambless, L. E., Ballantyne, C. M., Astor, B., Bertoni, A. G., Chang, P. P., Folsom, A. R., He, M., Hoogeveen, R. C., Ni, H., Quibrera, P. M., Rosamond, W. D., Russell, S. D., Shahar, E., & Heiss, G. (2012). Prediction of Incident Heart Failure in General Practice: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. Circulation: Heart Failure. https://doi.org/10.1161/circheartfailure.111.964841

Data sources

Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.

Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.