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Cited by 285

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 74 of the 74 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policy-Makers' Beliefs and U. S. Postwar Stabilization Policy*

Primiceri, Giorgio E·2006·Quarterly Journal of Economics
DOI 10.1162/qjec.121.3.867
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Abstract

This paper provides an explanation for the run-up of U. S. inflation in the 1960s and 1970s and the sharp disinflation in the early 1980s, which standard macroeconomic models have difficulties in addressing. I present a model in which rational policy-makers learn about the behavior of the economy in real time and set stabilization policy optimally, conditional on their current beliefs. The steady state associated with the self-confirming equilibrium of the model is characterized by low inflation. However, prolonged episodes of high inflation ending with rapid disinflations can occur when policy-makers underestimate both the natural rate of unemployment and the persistence of inflation in the Phillips curve. I estimate the model using likelihood methods. The estimation results show that the model accounts remarkably well for the evolution of policy-makers' beliefs, stabilization policy, and the postwar behavior of inflation and unemployment in the United States.

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Show all 74 references

Research works printed but not linked: 37

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  13. Chung, Heetaik, "Did Policy Makers Really Believe in the Phillips Curve? An Econometric Test," Ph.D. Thesis, University of Minnesota, 1990.
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Cited by

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Metadata

Authors
Primiceri, G. E.
Venue
Quarterly Journal of Economics
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
2006-08
Volume
121
Issue
3
Pages
867-901
ISSN
  • 0033-5533 (ISSN-L)
  • 1531-4650
DOI
10.1162/qjec.121.3.867
OpenAlex
W2126469786
Cited by
285
References
74
FWCI
53.22
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policy-Makers' Beliefs and U. S. Postwar Stabilization Policy*. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1162/qjec.121.3.867
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Primiceri, G. E. (2006). Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policy-Makers' Beliefs and U. S. Postwar Stabilization Policy*. Quarterly Journal of Economics. https://doi.org/10.1162/qjec.121.3.867

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