Scaling of Precipitation Extremes over a Wide Range of Climates Simulated with an Idealized GCM
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Extremes of precipitation are examined in a wide range of climates simulated with an idealized aquaplanet GCM. The high percentiles of daily precipitation increase as the climate warms. Their fractional rate of increase with global-mean surface temperature is generally similar to or greater than that of mean precipitation, but it is less than that of atmospheric (column) water vapor content. A simple scaling is introduced for precipitation extremes that accounts for their behavior by including the effects of changes in the moist-adiabatic lapse rate, the circulation strength, and the temperature when the extreme events occur. The effects of changes in the moist-adiabatic lapse rate and circulation strength on precipitation extremes are important globally, whereas the difference in the mean temperature and the temperature at which precipitation extremes occur is important only at middle to high latitudes.
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If changes in dynamics and precipitation efficiency are negligible, precipitation extremes increase with warming because of increases in the saturation vapor pressure of water.
“If changes in dynamics and precipitation efficiency are negligible, precipitation extremes increase with warming because of increases in the saturation vapor pressure of water [4, 62, 85, 86]; this will be made more precise in the “Theory” section.”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [62]
The fractional increase in S with warming is influenced by changes in the moist adiabatic lapse rate and varies strongly depending on temperature and therefore altitude in the atmosphere.
“The fractional increase in S with warming is influenced by changes in the moist adiabatic lapse rate [11, 62] and varies strongly depending on temperature and therefore altitude in the atmosphere.”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [62]
A stronger dynamical contribution resembling a poleward shift has been found in idealized aquaplanet simulations.
“A stronger dynamical contribution resembling a poleward shift has been found in idealized aquaplanet simulations [51, 62].”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [62]
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References 26 · Cited by 217
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- Schneider, T., and P. A. O'Gorman, 2007: Precipitation and its extremes in changed climates. Extreme Events: Proc. 'Aha Huliko'a Hawaiian Winter Workshop, Honolulu, HI, Univer- sity of Hawaii at Manoa, 61-66.
- Authors
- O’Gorman, P. A., & Schneider, T.
- Affiliations
- California Institute of Technology (US)
- Venue
- Journal of Climate
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2009-11-01
- Volume
- 22
- Issue
- 21
- Pages
- 5676-5685
- ISSN
- 0894-8755 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0442
- OpenAlex
- W2125716633
- Cited by
- 217
- References
- 26
- Citations by year
- 2026: 11 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 21 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 16 · 2019: 12 · 2018: 14 · 2017: 10 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 13 · 2013: 7 · 2012: 14
- FWCI
- 11.70
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of Climate (publishedVersion)
- DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- CaltechAUTHORS (California Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (0450059)
- California Institute of Technology
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- heavy rainfall, global warming, aquaplanet, moist adiabatic lapse rate, column water vapor, global mean temperature, high-latitude precipitation
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