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The Second Phase of the Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment: Soil Moisture Contributions to Subseasonal Forecast Skill
Abstract
The second phase of the Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) is a multi-institutional numerical modeling experiment focused on quantifying, for boreal summer, the subseasonal (out to two months) forecast skill for precipitation and air temperature that can be derived from the realistic initialization of land surface states, notably soil moisture. An overview of the experiment and model behavior at the global scale is described here, along with a determination and characterization of multimodel “consensus” skill. The models show modest but significant skill in predicting air temperatures, especially where the rain gauge network is dense. Given that precipitation is the chief driver of soil moisture, and thereby assuming that rain gauge density is a reasonable proxy for the adequacy of the observational network contributing to soil moisture initialization, this result indeed highlights the potential contribution of enhanced observations to prediction. Land-derived precipitation forecast skill is much weaker than that for air temperature. The skill for predicting air temperature, and to some extent precipitation, increases with the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly. GLACE-2 results are examined further to provide insight into the asymmetric impacts of wet and dry soil moisture initialization on skill.
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Cited by
Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting: status and prospects
Doblas‐Reyes, F. J., García‐Serrano, J., Lienert, F., Biescas, A. P., & Rodrigues, L. R. L. (2013) · WIREs Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.217 · Cited by 478
Self-citationThe terrestrial segment of soil moisture-climate coupling
Dirmeyer, P. A. (2011) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2011gl048268 · Cited by 458
Self-citationCurrent and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction
Merryfield, W. J., Baehr, J., Batté, L., Becker, E. J., Butler, A. H., Coelho, C. A. S., Danabasoglu, G., Dirmeyer, P. A., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., et al. (2020) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-19-0037.1 · Cited by 290
Self-citationInitialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales
Meehl, G. A., Richter, J. H., Teng, H., Capotondi, A., Cobb, K., Doblas-Reyes, F., Donat, M. G., England, M. H., Fyfe, J. C., Han, W., et al. (2021) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-021-00155-x · Cited by 231
Self-citationQuantifying sources of subseasonal prediction skill in CESM2
Richter, J. H., Glanville, A. A., King, T., Kumar, S., Yeager, S. G., Davis, N. A., Duan, Y., Fowler, M. D., Jaye, A., Edwards, J., et al. (2024) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-024-00595-4 · Cited by 25
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Metadata
- Authors
- Koster, R. D., Mahanama, S. P. P., Yamada, T. J., Balsamo, G., Berg, A. A., Boisserie, M., Dirmeyer, P. A., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Drewitt, G., Gordon, C. T., Guo, Z., Jeong, J.-H., Lee, W.-S., Li, Z., Luo, L., Malyshev, S., Merryfield, W. J., Seneviratne, S. I., Stanelle, T., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Vitart, F., & Wood, E. F.
- Venue
- Journal of Hydrometeorology
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2011-10
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 805-822
- ISSN
- 1525-7541 (ISSN-L)
- 1525-755X
- OpenAlex
- W2114688600
- Cited by
- 374
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 17.44
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- The paper
- Koster, R. D., Mahanama, S. P. P., Yamada, T. J., Balsamo, G., Berg, A. A., Boisserie, M., Dirmeyer, P. A., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Drewitt, G., Gordon, C. T., Guo, Z., Jeong, J.-H., Lee, W.-S., Li, Z., Luo, L., Malyshev, S., Merryfield, W. J., Seneviratne, S. I., Stanelle, T., . . . Wood, E. F. (2011). The Second Phase of the Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment: Soil Moisture Contributions to Subseasonal Forecast Skill. Journal of Hydrometeorology. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011jhm1365.1
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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