The DOI matches its Crossref record; 1 of the 1 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Toward Seamless Prediction: Calibration of Climate Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts
Open accessAbstract
Trustworthy probabilistic projections of regional climate are essential for society to plan for future climate change, and yet, by the nonlinear nature of climate, finite computational models of climate are inherently deficient in their ability to simulate regional climatic variability with complete accuracy. How can we determine whether specific regional climate projections may be untrustworthy in the light of such generic deficiencies? A calibration method is proposed whose basis lies in the emerging notion of seamless prediction. Specifically, calibrations of ensemblebased climate change probabilities are derived from analyses of the statistical reliability of ensemblebased forecast probabilities on seasonal time scales. The method is demonstrated by calibrating probabilistic projections from the multimodel ensembles used in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on reliability analyses from the seasonal forecast Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) dataset. The focus in this paper is on climate change projections of regional precipitation, though the method is more general.
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Citations
Cites
Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles
Thomson, M. C., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Mason, S. J., Hagedorn, R., Connor, S. J., Phindela, T., Morse, A. P., & Palmer, T. N. (2006) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature04503 · Cited by 470
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Cited by
Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting: status and prospects
Doblas‐Reyes, F. J., García‐Serrano, J., Lienert, F., Biescas, A. P., & Rodrigues, L. R. L. (2013) · WIREs Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.217 · Cited by 478
Self-citationMurphy, J. M., Booth, B. B. B., Collins, M., Harris, G. R., Sexton, D. M. H., & Webb, M. J. (2007) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2077 · Cited by 316
Should we believe model predictions of future climate change?
Knutti, R. (2008) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0169 · Cited by 279
Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales
Meehl, G. A., Richter, J. H., Teng, H., Capotondi, A., Cobb, K., Doblas-Reyes, F., Donat, M. G., England, M. H., Fyfe, J. C., Han, W., et al. (2021) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-021-00155-x · Cited by 231
Self-citationCalibration of Pre-trained Transformers
Desai, S., & Durrett, G. (2020) · Proceedings of the 2020 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP) · doi:10.18653/v1/2020.emnlp-main.21 · Cited by 209
Metadata
- Authors
- Palmer, T. N., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Weisheimer, A., & Rodwell, M. J.
- Venue
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2008-04
- Volume
- 89
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 459-470
- ISSN
- 0003-0007 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0477
- OpenAlex
- W2047635155
- Cited by
- 294
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 23.50
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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- Palmer, T. N., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Weisheimer, A., & Rodwell, M. J. (2008). Toward Seamless Prediction: Calibration of Climate Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-89-4-459
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