CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 176Schizophrenia research and treatmentMental Health Treatment and AccessBipolar Disorder and Treatment

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 46 of the 47 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

A Population-Based Cohort Study Examining the Incidence and Impact of Psychotic Experiences From Childhood to Adulthood, and Prediction of Psychotic Disorder

Open access
Sullivan, Sarah A., Kounali, Daphne, Cannon, Mary, David, Anthony S., Fletcher, Paul C., Holmans, Peter, Jones, Hannah, Jones, Peter B., Linden, David E.J., Lewis, Glyn, Owen, Michael J., O’Donovan, Michael, Rammos, Alexandros, Thompson, Andrew, Wolke, Dieter, Heron, Jon, Zammit, Stanley·2020·American Journal of Psychiatry
DOI 10.1176/appi.ajp.2019.19060654
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: The authors investigated the incidence, course, and outcome of psychotic experiences from childhood through early adulthood in the general population and examined prediction of psychotic disorder. METHODS: This was a population-based cohort study using the semistructured Psychosis-Like Symptoms Interview at ages 12, 18, and 24 (N=7,900 with any data). Incidence rates were estimated using flexible parametric modeling, and positive predictive values (PPVs), sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve were estimated for prediction. RESULTS: The incidence rate of psychotic experiences increased between ages 13 and 24, peaking during late adolescence. Of 3,866 participants interviewed at age 24, 313 (8.1%, 95% CI=7.2, 9.0) had a definite psychotic experience since age 12. A total of 109 individuals (2.8%) met criteria for a psychotic disorder up to age 24, of whom 70% had sought professional help. Prediction of current psychotic disorder at age 24 (N=47, 1.2%), by both self-report and interviewer-rated measures of psychotic experiences at age 18 (PPVs, 2.9% and 10.0%, respectively), was improved by incorporating information on frequency and distress (PPVs, 13.3% and 20.0%, respectively), although sensitivities were low. The PPV of an at-risk mental state at age 18 predicting incident disorder at ages 18-24 was 21.1% (95% CI=6.1, 45.6) (sensitivity, 14.3%, 95% CI=4.0, 32.7). CONCLUSIONS: The study results show a peak in incidence of psychotic experiences during late adolescence as well as an unmet need for care in young people with psychotic disorders. Because of the low sensitivity, targeting individuals in non-help-seeking samples based only on more severe symptom cutoff thresholds will likely have little impact on population levels of first-episode psychosis.

Overview

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1176/appi.ajp.2019.19060654

Cites

46 of 46 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

The text we found for this paper looks like another document, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The text we found for this paper looks like another document, so the self-check wasn’t run.

Citations

Cites

Show all 47 references

Research works printed but not linked: 3

  1. McGlashan TH, 2003, Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes, version 4
  2. Royston P, 2011, Flexible Parametric Survival Analysis Using Stata: Beyond the Cox Model
  3. Ajnakina O, Psychol Med

Cited by

Sorted by citations

See all 176

Related

Metadata

Authors
Sullivan, S. A., Kounali, D., Cannon, M., David, A. S., Fletcher, P. C., Holmans, P., Jones, H., Jones, P. B., Linden, D. E. J., Lewis, G., Owen, M. J., O’Donovan, M., Rammos, A., Thompson, A., Wolke, D., Heron, J., & Zammit, S.
Affiliations
  • Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland (IE)
  • Centre for Academic Mental Health, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, U.K. (Sullivan, Kounali, H. Jones, Heron, Zammit); Department of Psychiatry, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland, Dublin (Cannon); Institute of Mental Health, University College London (David, Lewis); Department of Psychiatry, Addenbrooke’s Hospital, University of Cambridge, Cambridge (Fletcher, P.B. Jones); MRC Centre for Neuropsychiatric Genetics and Genomics, School of Medicine, Cardiff University, Cardiff, U.K...
Corresponding author
Sullivan, Sarah A.
ORCID
Venue
American Journal of Psychiatry
Publisher
American Psychiatric Association Publishing
Published
2020-04-01
Volume
177
Issue
4
Pages
308-317
ISSN
  • 0002-953X (ISSN-L)
  • 1535-7228
DOI
10.1176/appi.ajp.2019.19060654
OpenAlex
W2986902715
Cited by
176
References
47
Citations by year
2026: 21 · 2025: 26 · 2024: 41 · 2023: 24 · 2022: 23 · 2021: 29 · 2020: 12
FWCI
15.96
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
other-oa
Locations
  • American Journal of Psychiatry (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • ORCA Online Research @Cardiff (Cardiff University) (acceptedVersion)
  • Warwick Research Archive Portal (University of Warwick) (acceptedVersion)
  • Explore Bristol Research (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
  • UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
  • ORCA Online Research @Cardiff (Cardiff University) (submittedVersion)
  • Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion)
  • Apollo (University of Cambridge) (submittedVersion)
  • Apollo
Funders
  • Wellcome Trust (095844/Z/11/Z, 206368/Z/17/Z)
  • Medical Research Council (MR/P005748/1, MR/L010305/1, MR/M006727/1)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Schizophrenia research and treatment
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Mental Health Treatment and Access
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Bipolar Disorder and Treatment
Keywords
psychotic experiences, psychosis, incidence, clinical high risk for psychosis, first-episode psychosis, psychosis prediction, late adolescence, symptom distress, help-seeking, unmet mental health needs, childhood to adulthood
MeSH terms
Adolescent, Child, Delusions, Female, United Kingdom, Hallucinations, Humans, Male, Predictive Value of Tests, Prospective Studies, Psychotic Disorders, Cohort Studies, Incidence, Young Adult

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review