Prediction of School Failure From Third-Grade Data

Abstract

Background characteristics, school performance, and achievement test data were analyzed for 788 third-grade boys and 774 third-grade girls who were known later to have become high school dropouts or graduates. As early as the third grade, dropouts differed significantly from graduates in age, IQ level, marks received in course work, parent's occupational and educational level, family size, marital status of parents, and tested reading, arithmetic, and language skill achievement. A combination of predictors produced a multiple correlation with dropout or graduation of .51 for boys and .49 for girls. A discriminant function yielded an overall correct classification of dropouts and graduates of 75%. Although prediction was less accurate for dropouts than for graduates, 6 or 7 of every 10 later school failures were correctly classified by characteristics exhibited in the third grade.