The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War: Unpacking Anocracy
Abstract
Research published in the American Political Science Review shows that anocracies—as defined by the middle of the Polity index of political regime—are more susceptible to civil war than are either pure democracies or pure dictatorships. Yet, certain components of the Polity index include a factional category, where political competition is ``intense, hostile, and frequently violent. Extreme factionalism may be manifested in the establishment of rival governments and in civil war'' (Gurr 1989, 12). Not surprisingly, these components exhibit a strong relationship with civil war. When they are removed from the Polity index, however, the original relationship disappears. I conclude that the original finding is not driven by the relationship between political institutions and civil war but rather by a less provocative relationship between political violence and civil war.
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Because of measurement problems relating to the Polity index, the curvilinear effect of democracy does not appear to be robust.
“However, because of measurement problems relating to the Polity index, this curvilinear effect of democracy does not appear to be robust (Vreeland 2008).”
From Dynamics and Logics of Civil War (2017) · cites this paper as Vreeland 2008
Cites
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State Repression and the Domestic Democratic Peace
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A Complete Data Set of Political Regimes, 1800–2007
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Cederman, L.-E., Gleditsch, K. S., & Buhaug, H. (2013) · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139084161 · Cited by 978 · see citing works
Dynamics and Logics of Civil War
Cederman, L.-E., & Vogt, M. (2017) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002717721385 · Cited by 205 · see citing works
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Self-citationOn climate variability and civil war in Asia
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Is There More Violence in the Middle?
Jones, Z. M., & Lupu, Y. (2018) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/ajps.12373 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
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- Authors
- Vreeland, J. R.
- Affiliations
- Yale University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Vreeland, James Raymond
- Venue
- Journal of Conflict Resolution
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2008-03-06
- Volume
- 52
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 401-425
- ISSN
- 0022-0027 (ISSN-L)
- 1552-8766
- OpenAlex
- W2132509947
- Cited by
- 562
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 20 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 22 · 2021: 42 · 2020: 54 · 2019: 40 · 2018: 29 · 2017: 34 · 2016: 58 · 2015: 31 · 2014: 31 · 2013: 48 · 2012: 37
- FWCI
- 96.06
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Conflict Resolution (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Theory and Democracy
- Keywords
- civil war, political regimes, anocracy, factionalism, political violence, democracy, dictatorship, political institutions
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