Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1976: Procedures, Patterns, and Insights

Abstract

This article offers an empirical description and discussion of interstate conflict behavior. The basis is a recently completed data set consisting of all recorded instances of threats, displays, and uses of military force among states since 1816. We detail historical trends in the data and describe major dimensions of dispute behavior, including patterns of participation, duration, severity and escalation, regional distribution, and national dispute proneness. The following conclusions are suggested: First, patterns of dispute behavior have been more persistent over time than we often assume. Second, when these patterns have changed, the changes have been evolutionary in nature and have paralleled changes in the size and composition of the interstate system. Third, despite the diversity of the political units that constitute the interstate system, patterns of dispute behavior are generalizable across geographic boundaries.