The Long-Term Impact of Promotion and Advertising on Consumer Brand Choice

Abstract

The authors examine the long-term effects of promotion and advertising on consumers’ brand choice behavior. They use 8 1/4 years of panel data for a frequently purchased packaged good to address two questions: (1) Do consumers’ responses to marketing mix variables, such as price, change over a long period of time? (2) If yes, are these changes associated with changes in manufacturers’ advertising and retailers’ promotional policies? Using these results, the authors draw implications for manufacturers’ pricing, advertising, and promotion policies. The authors use a two-stage approach, which permits them to assess the medium-term (quarterly) effects of advertising and promotion as well as their long-term (i.e., over an infinite horizon) effects. Their results are consistent with the hypotheses that consumers become more price and promotion sensitive over time because of reduced advertising and increased promotions.