Unequal exchange and the Rentier economy

Abstract

Detailed analysis of BEA methodology and data strongly suggests that U.S. GDP is overvalued on the output side. The ability to generate income without producing real value-added output is a key characteristic of a “rentier economy.” Broader indicators include a massive increase in financial activity and “finance, insurance, and real estate” (FIRE), declining manufacturing share, declining real investment in plant and equipment, increased outsourcing of production and rising trade deficits, declining employment and real wage growth, rising profits, growing inequality, and increasing aggregate demand dependency on private (household and business) and public sector debt. Based on these indicators, relative to other advanced countries like Germany, the U.S. has since the mid-1970’s increasingly become a “rentier economy.” Grafting a schematic “rentier economy” onto a simple “free trade unequal exchange” model from Baiman (2006) highlights the labor exchange, inequality, and efficiency characteristics of rentier United States, unequal exchange (German), and developing country (China), economies. Reviving the U.S. economy and restoring full employment will require a public policy induced reallocation of resources away from rentier activity back to productive high-value added “unequal exchange” production.