The oracles of science: On grant peer review and competitive funding
Open accessAbstract
From a purely epistemological point of view, evaluating and predicting the future success of new research projects is often considered very difficult. Is it possible to forecast important findings and breakthrough in science, and if not, then what is the point trying to do it anyway? Still, that is what funding agencies all over the world expect their reviewers to do, but a number of previous studies has shown that this form of evaluation of innovation, promise and future impact are a fundamentally uncertain and arbitrary practice. This is the context that I will discuss in the present essay, and I will claim that there is a deeply irrational element embedded in today’s heavy reliance on experts to screen, rank and select among the increasing numbers of good research projects, because they can, in principal, never discern the true potential behind the written proposals. Hence, I think it is motivated to see grant peer review as an ‘oracle of science’. My overall focus will be on the limits of competitive funding and also that the writing and reviewing of proposals is a waste of researchers’ precious time. And I will propose that we really need to develop new ways of thinking about how we organize research and distribute opportunities within academia.
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It is not possible through any methods to predict the most successful research to fund in advance.
“Academic research fundamentally involves uncertainty, so it is not possible through any methods to predict the most successful research to fund in advance (Roumbanis 2021).”
From Scoring Grant Applications with Large Language Models (2026) · cites this paper as Roumbanis 2021
Cites
Ravetz, J. R. (1972) · Nature · doi:10.1038/238360a0 · Cited by 1,539 · cited 1×
“…this essay by highlighting something that sociologists of science and science and technology studies (STS) scholars have been aware of for quite some time, namely that experts within a certain research field rely on their developed sense of taste (Merton, 1973) or ‘skilled academic intuition’.”
BackgroundLow agreement among reviewers evaluating the same NIH grant applications
Pier, E. L., Brauer, M., Filut, A., Kaatz, A., Raclaw, J., Nathan, M. J., Ford, C. E., & Carnes, M. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1714379115 · Cited by 210 · cited 1× · see citing works
“In my view, there is no point in trying to convince ourselves that evaluation of grant proposals is a rational, fair and reliable practice; there is ample empirical evidence showing exactly the opposite (e.g. Jerrim and De Vries, 2020; Pier et al., 2018; Van den Besselaar et al., 2018).”
BackgroundShapin, S. (2012) · Social Studies of Science · doi:10.1177/0306312711435375 · Cited by 155 · see citing works
The sociology of scientific validity: How professional networks shape judgement in peer review
Teplitskiy, M., Acuna, D., Elamrani-Raoult, A., Körding, K., & Evans, J. (2018) · Research Policy · doi:10.1016/j.respol.2018.06.014 · Cited by 113 · cited 1× · see citing works
“…may nonetheless offer an important source of intellectual exchange between researchers – an ongoing ‘organized skepticism’ is taking place, for example, during seminars, conferences and workshops, and in journal peer review (cf. Brezis and Birukou, 2020; Fyfe et al., 2020; Teplitskiy et al., 2018).”
BackgroundArbitrariness in the peer review process
Brezis, E. S., & Birukou, A. (2020) · Scientometrics · doi:10.1007/s11192-020-03348-1 · Cited by 82 · cited 1× · see citing works
“…may nonetheless offer an important source of intellectual exchange between researchers – an ongoing ‘organized skepticism’ is taking place, for example, during seminars, conferences and workshops, and in journal peer review (cf. Brezis and Birukou, 2020; Fyfe et al., 2020; Teplitskiy et al., 2018).”
BackgroundRoumbanis, L. (2019) · Science Technology & Human Values · doi:10.1177/0162243918822744 · Cited by 79 · cited 2× · see citing works
“And many original and idiosyncratic scholars who do not fit into the ‘entrepreneurial culture’, and have difficulty learning the art of ‘grantsmanship’ (Roumbanis, 2019a), will often struggle in vain.”
BackgroundSelf-citationHow I created the theory of relativity
Ono, Y. A. (1982) · doi:10.1063/1.2915203 · Cited by 77
Stop evaluating science: A historical-sociological argument
Hallonsten, O. (2021) · Social Science Information · doi:10.1177/0539018421992204 · Cited by 61 · cited 2× · see citing works
“The problematic consequences of the excessive use of quantitative metrics and performance indicators have already been thoroughly examined by many scholars, including Olof Hallonsten (2021).”
BackgroundStudying grant decision-making: a linguistic analysis of review reports
van den Besselaar, P., Sandström, U., & Schiffbänker, H. (2018) · Scientometrics · doi:10.1007/s11192-018-2848-x · Cited by 61 · cited 1× · see citing works
“In my view, there is no point in trying to convince ourselves that evaluation of grant proposals is a rational, fair and reliable practice; there is ample empirical evidence showing exactly the opposite (e.g. Jerrim and De Vries, 2020; Pier et al., 2018; Van den Besselaar et al., 2018).”
BackgroundRoumbanis, L. (2018) · Minerva · doi:10.1007/s11024-018-9364-2 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Self-citationManaging the Growth of Peer Review at the Royal Society Journals, 1865-1965
Fyfe, A., Squazzoni, F., Torny, D., & Dondio, P. (2019) · Science Technology & Human Values · doi:10.1177/0162243919862868 · Cited by 36 · cited 1× · see citing works
“…may nonetheless offer an important source of intellectual exchange between researchers – an ongoing ‘organized skepticism’ is taking place, for example, during seminars, conferences and workshops, and in journal peer review (cf. Brezis and Birukou, 2020; Fyfe et al., 2020; Teplitskiy et al., 2018).”
BackgroundMcMahan, P., & Evans, J. A. (2018) · American Journal of Sociology · doi:10.1086/701298 · Cited by 33 · cited 1× · see citing works
“It has been argued that ambiguity, and the uncertainty that follows from ambiguity, can sometimes play a distinct role in the creative development of science by creating zones of intellectual engagement (McMahan and Evans, 2018).”
BackgroundJerrim, J., & de Vries, R. D. (2020) · The Social science journal (Fort Collins) · doi:10.1080/03623319.2020.1728506 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Evaluating science: Opening a debate
Jaclin, D., & Wagner, P. (2021) · Social Science Information · doi:10.1177/0539018421993021 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
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5 of the 19 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
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Disagreement and Agonistic Chance in Peer Review
Roumbanis, L. (2022) · Science, Technology, & Human Values · doi:10.1177/01622439211026016 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
“But the true quality of a research project can never be fully observed in a proposal because it is impossible to predict future discoveries and breakthroughs in science (see, e.g., Roumbanis 2021).”
Self-citationThe costs of competition in distributing scarce research funds
Schweiger, G., Barnett, A. G., van den Besselaar, P., Bornmann, L., BLOCK, A. D., Ioannidis, J. P. A., Sandström, U., & Conix, S. (2024) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2407644121 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
“The limitation lies in the subjective nature of evaluation, where experts may not always grasp a project’s full scope or potential solely from its written description [28].”
BackgroundEvaluation of research proposals by peer review panels: broader panels for broader assessments?
Abma-Schouten, R., Gijbels, J., Reijmerink, W., & Meijer, I. (2023) · Science and Public Policy · doi:10.1093/scipol/scad009 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Grieving academic grant rejections: Examining funding failure and experiences of loss
Borgstrom, E., Driessen, A., Krawczyk, M., Kirby, E. R., MacArtney, J. I., & Almack, K. (2023) · The Sociological Review · doi:10.1177/00380261231207196 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
“There is widespread acknowledgement that resource allocation processes are flawed, idiosyncratic or opaque (Fang & Casadevall, 2016; Herbert et al., 2013; Moore et al., 2017; Roumbanis, 2021).”
Arboledas-Lérida, L. (2023) · Critica Sociologica · doi:10.1177/08969205231209679 · Cited by 8
“In other cases, a return to substantial public funding ‘with no strings attached’ is explicitly advocated as a solution for the problems plaguing contemporary academia – including those stemming from CPBF itself (Roumbanis, 2021; see also Hallonsten, 2021).”
BackgroundMorimoto, J. (2022) · Humanities and Social Sciences Communications · doi:10.1057/s41599-022-01223-3 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
“There have been ethical criticisms of the status quo allocation of academic capital (Conix et al., 2021; Roumbanis, 2021) and alternative ways in which capital can be distributed have been created, largely attempting to restore fairness into the process (Chawla, 2021).”
BackgroundMore Than Euros: Exploring the Construction of Project Grants as Prizes and Consolations
Edlund, P. (2023) · Minerva · doi:10.1007/s11024-023-09501-3 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
The impact of the pitching research framework on AFAANZ grant applications
Gill, C., Mehrotra, V., Moses, Y., & Bui, B. H. (2022) · Pacific-Basin Finance Journal · doi:10.1016/j.pacfin.2022.101933 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Peterson, H., & Husu, L. (2024) · Research Evaluation · doi:10.1093/reseval/rvaf030 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Scoring Grant Applications with Large Language Models
Thelwall, M., Pride, D., Osborne, F., Salatino, A., Knoth, P., Iyawa, G., & Yusuf, O. (2026) · arXiv · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2609.25327
“Academic research fundamentally involves uncertainty, so it is not possible through any methods to predict the most successful research to fund in advance (Roumbanis 2021).”
Zharinova, A., Shkuratov, O., Zharinov, S., & Dohtieva, I. (2026) · Science and innovation · doi:10.15407/scine22.03.023
“Within competitive funding schemes, funding organizations and agencies, as noted in [2], expect the expert community to address complex issues re-lated to assessing project prospects and forecas ting the future success of their outcomes.”
InfluentialKoch, T., Puppato, L., & Labraña, J. (2026) · Latin American Policy · doi:10.1111/lamp.70054
Co-authorship Networks of Lithuanian Sociologists, 2015–2019
Bagdonas, L. (2025) · Sociologija : Mintis ir Veiksmas · doi:10.15388/socmintvei.2025.57.1
- Authors
- Roumbanis, L.
- Affiliations
- Stockholm University (SE)
- Corresponding author
- Roumbanis, Lambros
- ORCID
- Roumbanis, Lambros
- Venue
- Social Science Information
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2021-07-05
- Volume
- 60
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 356-362
- ISSN
- 0539-0184 (ISSN-L)
- 1461-7412
- OpenAlex
- W3195428310
- Cited by
- 15
- References
- 19
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 2
- FWCI
- 2.13
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Social Science Information (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- DiVA (Stockholm University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Information Systems and Management › Research, Science, and Academia
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › scientometrics and bibliometrics research
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History and Philosophy of Science › Publishing and Scholarly Communication
- Keywords
- grant peer review, competitive research funding, research evaluation, scientific prediction, epistemic uncertainty, expert opinion, research proposal writing, research organization, academic careers
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