Cited by 15Research, Science, and Academiascientometrics and bibliometrics researchPublishing and Scholarly Communication

The oracles of science: On grant peer review and competitive funding

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Roumbanis, Lambros·2021·Social Science Information

Abstract

From a purely epistemological point of view, evaluating and predicting the future success of new research projects is often considered very difficult. Is it possible to forecast important findings and breakthrough in science, and if not, then what is the point trying to do it anyway? Still, that is what funding agencies all over the world expect their reviewers to do, but a number of previous studies has shown that this form of evaluation of innovation, promise and future impact are a fundamentally uncertain and arbitrary practice. This is the context that I will discuss in the present essay, and I will claim that there is a deeply irrational element embedded in today’s heavy reliance on experts to screen, rank and select among the increasing numbers of good research projects, because they can, in principal, never discern the true potential behind the written proposals. Hence, I think it is motivated to see grant peer review as an ‘oracle of science’. My overall focus will be on the limits of competitive funding and also that the writing and reviewing of proposals is a waste of researchers’ precious time. And I will propose that we really need to develop new ways of thinking about how we organize research and distribute opportunities within academia.

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Crossref · 10.1177/05390184211019241

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14 of 14 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

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  • It is not possible through any methods to predict the most successful research to fund in advance.

    “Academic research fundamentally involves uncertainty, so it is not possible through any methods to predict the most successful research to fund in advance (Roumbanis 2021).”

    From Scoring Grant Applications with Large Language Models (2026) · cites this paper as Roumbanis 2021

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Authors
Roumbanis, L.
Affiliations
Stockholm University (SE)
Corresponding author
Roumbanis, Lambros
Venue
Social Science Information
Published
2021-07-05
Volume
60
Issue
3
Pages
356-362
ISSN
  • 0539-0184 (ISSN-L)
  • 1461-7412
OpenAlex
W3195428310
Cited by
15
References
19
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 2
FWCI
2.13
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Social Science Information (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • DiVA (Stockholm University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Information Systems and Management › Research, Science, and Academia
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › scientometrics and bibliometrics research
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History and Philosophy of Science › Publishing and Scholarly Communication
Keywords
grant peer review, competitive research funding, research evaluation, scientific prediction, epistemic uncertainty, expert opinion, research proposal writing, research organization, academic careers

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