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Sample-Size Planning for More Accurate Statistical Power: A Method Adjusting Sample Effect Sizes for Publication Bias and Uncertainty
Abstract
The sample size necessary to obtain a desired level of statistical power depends in part on the population value of the effect size, which is, by definition, unknown. A common approach to sample-size planning uses the sample effect size from a prior study as an estimate of the population value of the effect to be detected in the future study. Although this strategy is intuitively appealing, effect-size estimates, taken at face value, are typically not accurate estimates of the population effect size because of publication bias and uncertainty. We show that the use of this approach often results in underpowered studies, sometimes to an alarming degree. We present an alternative approach that adjusts sample effect sizes for bias and uncertainty, and we demonstrate its effectiveness for several experimental designs. Furthermore, we discuss an open-source R package, BUCSS, and user-friendly Web applications that we have made available to researchers so that they can easily implement our suggested methods.
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“Furthermore, sample sizes are often underpowered (4-6), at times leading to conclusions that do not hold up with larger-sized replications or metaanalyses (7).”
From Generic language in scientific communication (2019) · cites this paper as [4]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Anderson, S. F., Kelley, K., & Maxwell, S. E.
- Affiliations
- University of Notre Dame (US)
- Corresponding author
- Anderson, Samantha F.
- Venue
- Psychological Science
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2017-09-13
- Volume
- 28
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 1547-1562
- ISSN
- 0956-7976 (ISSN-L)
- 1467-9280
- OpenAlex
- W2756450828
- Cited by
- 406
- References
- 63
- Citations by year
- 2026: 31 · 2025: 39 · 2024: 46 · 2023: 55 · 2022: 52 · 2021: 53 · 2020: 44 · 2019: 47 · 2018: 34 · 2017: 3
- FWCI
- 31.51
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Psychological Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Psychology Research and Bibliometrics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Keywords
- sample size determination, statistical power, effect size estimation, publication bias, underpowered studies
- MeSH terms
- Data Interpretation, Statistical, Humans, Publication Bias, Sample Size, Uncertainty
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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