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Cited by 14Sports Analytics and PerformanceDoping in SportsBenford’s Law and Fraud Detection

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 4 of the 5 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

NCAA ``Point Shaving'' as an Artifact of the Regression Effect and the Lack of Tie Games

Johnson, Neal·2009·Journal of Sports Economics
DOI 10.1177/1527002508327388
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Abstract

Wolfers concluded that point shaving may occur in 6% of NCAA Division I basketball games involving a team favored by more than 12 points. His analysis is flawed on two counts. First, a regression effect is introduced when the definition of a strong favorite is based on the betting market's estimate of the winning margin. Second, the effect that a lack of tie games has on the resulting distribution of game outcomes relative to the Vegas spread is mistaken as a shift in the distribution because of point shaving. When combined, the regression effect and the lack of ties generate the observed data patterns. Numerical analysis indicates that even if the betting market makes unbiased estimates of the winning margin, an error with a standard deviation of 1.35 points is sufficient to generate the observed data pattern.

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Crossref · 10.1177/1527002508327388

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4 of 4 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

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Show all 5 references

Research works printed but not linked: 7

  1. Beck, H., 2007, The New York Times, D.1
  2. Cannella, S., 2006, Sports Illustrated, 104, 26
  3. Fridson, M., 2006, Barron's, 86, 48
  4. Gibbs, J., 2007, Point shaving in the NBA: An economic analysis of the National Basketball Association's point spread betting market. Undergraduate Honor's Thesis
  5. Knightly, A.M., 2006, Las Vegas Business Press, 23, 10
  6. Leonhardt, D., 2006, The New York Times, C.1
  7. McCarthy, M., 2007, USA Today, 01c

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Metadata

Authors
Johnson, N.
Affiliations
Pacific Lutheran University (US)
Corresponding author
Johnson, Neal
Venue
Journal of Sports Economics
Publisher
SAGE Publications
Published
2009-02
Volume
10
Issue
1
Pages
59-67
ISSN
  • 1527-0025 (ISSN-L)
  • 1552-7794
DOI
10.1177/1527002508327388
OpenAlex
W2059116951
Semantic Scholar
babc006f706b7329435a273484436caeabba8d41
Cited by
14
References
5
Citations by year
2024: 1 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 1 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 2 · 2016: 1 · 2015: 1 · 2013: 1 · 2012: 2
FWCI
1.96
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license (tdm)
Locations
  • Journal of Sports Economics (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Sports Analytics and Performance
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Doping in Sports
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Benford’s Law and Fraud Detection
Keywords
NCAA basketball, regression effect, betting markets, tie games, sports corruption

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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

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