The DOI matches its Crossref record; 38 of the 39 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Would school closure for the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic have been worth the cost?: a computational simulation of Pennsylvania
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: During the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic, policy makers debated over whether, when, and how long to close schools. While closing schools could have reduced influenza transmission thereby preventing cases, deaths, and health care costs, it may also have incurred substantial costs from increased childcare needs and lost productivity by teachers and other school employees. METHODS: A combination of agent-based and Monte Carlo economic simulation modeling was used to determine the cost-benefit of closing schools (vs. not closing schools) for different durations (range: 1 to 8 weeks) and symptomatic case incidence triggers (range: 1 to 30) for the state of Pennsylvania during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic. Different scenarios varied the basic reproductive rate (R(0)) from 1.2, 1.6, to 2.0 and used case-hospitalization and case-fatality rates from the 2009 epidemic. Additional analyses determined the cost per influenza case averted of implementing school closure. RESULTS: For all scenarios explored, closing schools resulted in substantially higher net costs than not closing schools. For R(0) = 1.2, 1.6, and 2.0 epidemics, closing schools for 8 weeks would have resulted in median net costs of $21.0 billion (95% Range: $8.0 - $45.3 billion). The median cost per influenza case averted would have been $14,185 ($5,423 - $30,565) for R(0) = 1.2, $25,253 ($9,501 - $53,461) for R(0) = 1.6, and $23,483 ($8,870 - $50,926) for R(0) = 2.0. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that closing schools during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic could have resulted in substantial costs to society as the potential costs of lost productivity and childcare could have far outweighed the cost savings in preventing influenza cases.
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“they decrease the workforce in health care and other important capacities by prompting more parents to stay home with children”
From Precaution and proportionality in pandemic politics: democracy, state capacity, and COVID-19-related school closures around the world (2022) · cites this paper as Brown et al. 2011
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“are likely to have detrimental effects on student performance and well-being (e.g. Brown et al. 2011; CDC 2020).”
From Precaution and proportionality in pandemic politics: democracy, state capacity, and COVID-19-related school closures around the world (2022) · cites this paper as Brown et al. 2011
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Metadata
- Authors
- Brown, S. T., Tai, J. H., Bailey, R. R., Cooley, P. C., Wheaton, W. D., Potter, M. A., Voorhees, R. E., LeJeune, M., Grefenstette, J. J., Burke, D. S., McGlone, S. M., & Lee, B. Y.
- Affiliations
- University of Pittsburgh (US)
- RTI International (US)
- Corresponding author
- Brown, Shawn T
- Venue
- BMC Public Health
- Published
- 2011-05-20
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 353-353
- ISSN
- 1471-2458 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3119163
- OpenAlex
- W1994172949
- Cited by
- 111
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 9 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 15 · 2013: 14 · 2012: 13
- FWCI
- 10.36
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- BMC Public Health (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- D-Scholarship@Pitt (University of Pittsburgh) (acceptedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- Johns Hopkins University
- National Institutes of Health (5u54gm088491-10)
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1P01TP000304-03)
- National Institute of General Medical Sciences (1U54GM088491-01-09)
- U.S. National Library of Medicine (R01LM009132)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Applied Mathematics › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Keywords
- school closures, 2009 H1N1 influenza, pandemic influenza, cost-benefit analysis, basic reproduction number, productivity loss, childcare costs, influenza transmission, Pennsylvania
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Child, Child, Preschool, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Infant, Influenza, Human, Middle Aged, Monte Carlo Method, Pennsylvania, Schools, Models, Statistical, Models, Econometric, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Young Adult
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