Cited by 49Malaria Research and ControlBird parasitology and diseasesVector-borne infectious diseases

The DOI matches its Crossref record.

Ten years malaria trend at Arjo-Didessa sugar development site and its vicinity, Southwest Ethiopia: a retrospective study

Open access

Abstract

The trend analysis of malaria data from health facilities is useful for understanding dynamics of malaria epidemiology and inform for future malaria control planning. Changes in clinical malaria characteristics, like gender and age distribution are good indicators of declining malaria transmission. This study was conducted to determine the malaria trend at Arjo-Didessa sugar development site and its vicinity, southwest Ethiopia, from 2008 to 2017. Monthly malaria confirmed case data from 2008 to 2017 was extracted from 11 health facilities based on clinical registers at Arjo sugar development site and its vicinity, southwest Ethiopia. Both positivity rate and malaria incidence rate were calculated. Changes in malaria parasite species and seasonality were analysed; age structure and gender distribution were compared between different study periods. Trend in malaria incidence and climatic impact were analysed and past LLIN and IRS campaigns were used as dynamics modifier. Over a period of 10 years, 54,020 blood film were collected for malaria diagnosis in the health facilities at the area, of which 18,049 (33.4%) were confirmed malaria cases by both microscopically and RDT. Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax , and mixed infection ( P. falciparum and P. vivax ) accounted for 8660 (48%), 7649 (42.4%), and 1740 (9.6%) of the malaria cases, respectively. The study also revealed that P. vivax was the predominant over P. falciparum for 4 years (2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016). There was a remarkable reduction of overall malaria infection during the 10 years. Malaria has been reported in all age groups, but age distribution showed that vast majority of cases were adults age 15 years and above 13,305 (73.7%). In all age groups, males were more significantly affected than females (χ 2 = 133.0, df = 2, P < 0.0001). Moreover, malaria positivity rate showed a strong seasonality (χ 2 = 777.55, df = 11, P < 0.0001). However, malaria cases were reported in all seasons across 10 years in the study area. In general, malaria positivity showed a declining trend over 10 years period in the area. However, current prevalence shows it is public health burden and needs attention for further intensification of interventions. In the study area, both P. falciparum and P. vivax co-exist and P. vivax is more prevalent than P. falciparum in almost half of the years. Therefore, malaria interventions should be strengthened in the study area.

Overview

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1186/s12936-019-2777-z

Cites

Statistics

Verification

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Malaria prevalence in the study area is less than 3%.

    “Malaria prevalence in this area is less than 3%, and transmission is seasonal, with cases peaking between September to December (Hawaria et al., 2019).”

    From Investigating the Impact of Irrigation on Malaria Vector Larval Habitats and Transmission Using a Hydrology‐Based Model (2023) · cites this paper as Hawaria et al., 2019

    The Results (General characteristics and malaria parasite species; page unavailable) report a 33.4% malaria positivity rate among suspected cases, not a rate below 3%. The paper does not measure population prevalence, so its positivity rate should not be presented as a prevalence estimate. (LLM, conf=0.83)

    Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Due to poor drainage caused by the low permeability of the extensive heavy clay, the study area is a perennial hotspot for larval habitats and is known to be malarious.

    “Due to poor drainage caused by the low permeability of the extensive heavy clay, the area is a perennial hotspot for larval habitats and is known to be malarious (Demissew et al., 2020; Hawaria et al., 2019).”

    From Investigating the Impact of Irrigation on Malaria Vector Larval Habitats and Transmission Using a Hydrology‐Based Model (2023) · cites this paper as Hawaria et al., 2019

    The Background says irrigation at the Arjo-Didessa sugarcane site created malaria-vector breeding habitats, and the Discussion reports malaria cases in every season over ten years. The paper does not attribute those habitats to poor drainage, low soil permeability, or extensive heavy clay; it instead discusses irrigation as a possible contributor. (LLM, conf=0.88)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Malaria transmission in the study area is seasonal, with cases peaking between September and December.

    “Malaria prevalence in this area is less than 3%, and transmission is seasonal, with cases peaking between September to December (Hawaria et al., 2019).”

    From Investigating the Impact of Irrigation on Malaria Vector Larval Habitats and Transmission Using a Hydrology‐Based Model (2023) · cites this paper as Hawaria et al., 2019

    The Results section, “Seasonal variations in malaria positivity rate,” confirms strong seasonality in the study area, but places its highest confirmed cases between September and November, not September and December. The Discussion gives September–December as the peak period for Ethiopia generally, rather than the study area specifically. (LLM, conf=0.88)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Both major malaria parasites in Ethiopia, Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, co-exist in the study area with equal incidences but significant seasonality.

    “Local clinical malaria data shows that both major malaria parasites in Ethiopia, Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, co‐exist with equal incidences but significant seasonality (Hawaria et al., 2019).”

    From Investigating the Impact of Irrigation on Malaria Vector Larval Habitats and Transmission Using a Hydrology‐Based Model (2023) · cites this paper as Hawaria et al., 2019

    The Results (‘General characteristics and malaria parasite species’) confirm that both parasites occurred in the study area, but report 48.0% of cases as P. falciparum and 42.4% as P. vivax, describing a slight predominance of P. falciparum rather than equal incidence. The Results (‘Seasonal variations in malaria positivity rate’) report strong seasonality and significantly different peak seasons for the two species. (LLM, conf=0.88)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • The result was an increased diversity of habitats, which agrees with field observations.

    “The result was an increased diversity of the habitats which agrees with field observations (Hawaria et al., 2019).”

    From Investigating the Impact of Irrigation on Malaria Vector Larval Habitats and Transmission Using a Hydrology‐Based Model (2023) · cites this paper as Hawaria et al., 2019

    The Background (page unavailable) says irrigation created a large area of malaria-vector breeding habitats, and the Discussion (page unavailable) says irrigation could increase their proliferation. Neither passage establishes increased habitat diversity or reports field observations confirming it; the study analyzed health-facility records. (LLM, conf=0.83)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Citations

Cites

No references could be resolved yet.

Research works printed but not linked: 33

  1. WHO. World malaria report 2017. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2017.
  2. Institute Ethiopia Public Health. Ethiopia National Malaria Indicator Survey 2015. Addis Ababa: Ethiopia Public Health Institute; 2016.
  3. WHO. World malaria report 2015. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2015.
  4. Alemu A, Muluye D, Mihret M, Adugna M, Gebeyaw M. Ten year trend analysis of malaria prevalence in Kola Diba, North Gondar, Northwest Ethiopia. Parasit Vectors. 2012;5:173. · DOI
  5. Aregawi M, Lynch M, Bekele W, Kebede H, Jima D, Taffese HS. Time series analysis of trends in malaria cases and deaths at hospitals and the effect of antimalarial interventions, 2001–2011, Ethiopia. PLoS ONE. 2014;9:e106359. · DOI
  6. Abeku TA, Helinski ME, Kirby MJ, Kefyalew T, Awano T, Batisso E. Monitoring changes in malaria epidemiology and effectiveness of interventions in Ethiopia and Uganda: beyond Garki Project baseline survey. Malar J. 2015;14:337. · DOI
  7. Ministry of Health. Guideline for malaria epidemic prevention and control in Ethiopia. 2nd ed. Addis Ababa: Ministry of Health; 2004.
  8. Ministry of Health. Malaria diagnosis and treatment guidelines for health workers in Ethiopia. Addis Ababa: Ministry of Health; 2004.
  9. Jima D, Getachew A, Bilak H, Steketee RW, Emerson PM, Graves PM, et al. Malaria indicator survey 2007, Ethiopia: coverage and use of major malaria prevention and control interventions. Malar J. 2010;9:58. · DOI
  10. Ministry of Health. Malaria diagnosis and treatment guidelines for health workers in Ethiopia. Ministry of Health: Addis Ababa; 2012.
  11. Paaijmans KP, Read AF, Thomas MB. Understanding the link between malaria risk and climate. Ecology. 2009;106:13844–9.
  12. Thomson AJ. Climate indices, rainfall onset and retreat, and malaria in Nigeria. J Vector Borne Dis. 2010;47:193–203.
  13. Afrane Y, Lawson BW, Githeko AK, Yan G. Effects of microclimatic changes caused by land use and land cover on duration of gonotrophic cycles of Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae) in western Kenya highlands. J Med Entomol. 2005;42:974–80. · DOI
  14. Kibret S, Wilson GG, Ryder D, Tekie H, Petros B. Malaria impact of large dams at different eco-epidemiological settings in Ethiopia. Trop Med Int Health. 2017;45:4. · DOI
  15. Ministry of Health. National strategic plan for malaria prevention control and elimination in Ethiopia 2011–2015. Ministry of Health: Addis Ababa; 2010.
  16. Tesfa H, Bayih AG, Zeleke AJ. A 17-year trend analysis of malaria at Adi Arkay, north Gondar zone, Northwest Ethiopia. Malar J. 2018;17:155. · DOI
  17. Ministry of Health. Ethiopia National Malaria Indicator Survey 2015. Addis Ababa: Ethiopia Public Health Institute; 2016.
  18. Alemu A, Abebe G, Tsegaye W, Golassa L. Climatic variables and malaria transmission dynamics in Jimma town, South West Ethiopia. Parasit Vectors. 2011;4:30. · DOI · Paper page
  19. Baird JK. Neglect of Plasmodium vivax malaria. Trends Parasitol. 2007;23:533–9. · DOI
  20. Jennifer S, Scott J, Goetz A, Simon I. Climatic suitability for malaria transmission in Africa 1911–1995. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2003;100:15341–5. · DOI
  21. Yimer F, Animut A, Erko B, Mamo H. Past five-year trend, current prevalence and household knowledge, attitude and practice of malaria in Abeshge, south-central Ethiopia. Malar J. 2015;14:230. · DOI
  22. Sena LD, Deressa WA, Ali AA. Analysis of trend of malaria prevalence in south-west Ethiopia: a retrospective comparative study. Malar J. 2014;13:188. · DOI
  23. Legesse D, Haji Y, Abreha S. Trend analysis of malaria occurrence in Wolaita Zone, Southern Ethiopia: retrospective cross-sectional study. Malar Res Treat. 2015;2015:8.
  24. Okiro EA, Taiar AA, Reyburn H, Idro R, Berkley JA, Snow RW. Age patterns of severe paediatric malaria and their relationship to Plasmodium falciparum transmission intensity. Malar J. 2009;8:4. · DOI
  25. Akotet MB, Offouga CL, Mawili-Mboumba DP, Essola L, Madoungou B, Kombila M. Falciparum malaria as an emerging cause of fever in adults living in Gabon, Central Africa. Biomed Res Int. 2014;2014:351281.
  26. Murungia LM, Kamuyua G, Lowea B, Bejona P, Theisen P, Kinyanjuia SM, et al. A threshold concentration of anti-merozoite antibodies is required forprotection from clinical episodes of malaria. Vaccine. 2013;31:3936–42. · DOI
  27. Nkumama IN, O’Meara WP, Osier FH. Changes in malaria epidemiology in Africa and new challenges for elimination. Trends Parasitol. 2017;33:128–40. · DOI
  28. Carneiro I, Roca-Feltrer A, Griffin GT, Smith L, Tanne L, Schellenberg JA, et al. Age-patterns of malaria vary with severity, transmission intensity and seasonality in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and pooled analysis. PLoS ONE. 2010;5:e8988. · DOI
  29. Ministry of Health. Guideline for malaria vector control in Ethiopia: malaria and other vector borne diseases prevention and control. Ministry of Health: Addis Ababa; 2002.
  30. Ministry of Health. National strategic plan for malaria prevention, control and elimination in Ethiopia: 2014–2020. Ministry of Health: Addis Ababa; 2014.
  31. Kibret S, Alemu Y, Boelee E, Tekie H, Alemu D, Petros B. The impact of a small-scale irrigation scheme on malaria transmission in Ziway area, Central Ethiopia. Trop Med Int Health. 2010;15:41–50.
  32. Abeku TA, van Oortmarssen GJ, Borsboom G, de Vlas SJ, Habbema JD. Spatial and temporal variations of malaria epidemic risk in Ethiopia: factors involved and implications. Acta Trop. 2003;87:331–40. · DOI
  33. Yewhalaw D, Legesse W, Bortel WV, Gebre-Selassie S, Kloos H, Duchateau L, et al. Malaria and water resource development: the case of Gilgel-Gibe hydroelectric dam in Ethiopia. Malar J. 2009;8:21. · DOI

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Metadata

Authors
Hawaria, D., Getachew, H., Zhong, G., Demissew, A., Habitamu, K., Raya, B., Lee, M.-C., Yewhalaw, D., & Yan, G.
Affiliations
  • Arba Minch University (ET)
  • University of California, Irvine (US)
  • Ambo University (ET)
  • Kotebe University of Education (ET)
  • Jimma University (ET)
Corresponding author
Yewhalaw, Delenasaw
Venue
Malaria Journal
Published
2019-04-24
Volume
18
Issue
1
Pages
145-145
ISSN
1475-2875 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W2946237669
Cited by
49
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 1
FWCI
5.30
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Malaria Journal (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
National Institutes of Health (D43 TW001505, R01 A1050243, U19 AI129326)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Malaria Research and Control
  • Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Parasitology › Bird parasitology and diseases
  • Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Parasitology › Vector-borne infectious diseases
Keywords
malaria incidence trends, malaria incidence, Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax, seasonal malaria transmission, age and sex distribution, malaria control, long-lasting insecticidal nets, indoor residual spraying, Southwest Ethiopia
MeSH terms
Adolescent, Adult, Agriculture, Child, Child, Preschool, Ethiopia, Female, Health Facilities, Humans, Infant, Male, Retrospective Studies, Seasons, Sex Factors, Prevalence, Malaria, Falciparum, Malaria, Vivax, Age Distribution, Saccharum, Young Adult, Coinfection

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review