CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 68

The DOI matches its Crossref record.

Volcano observatory best practices (VOBP) workshops - a summary of findings and best-practice recommendations

Pallister, John, Papale, Paolo, Eichelberger, John, Newhall, Chris, Mandeville, Charles, Nakada, Setsuya, Marzocchi, Warner, Loughlin, Susan, Jolly, Gill, Ewert, John, Selva, Jacopo·2019·Journal of Applied Volcanology
DOI 10.1186/s13617-019-0082-8
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Overview

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1186/s13617-019-0082-8

Cites

Statistics

Figures

Fig. 1 Global map showing nations represented at the VOBP workshops. Colors show nations that attended one or more of the workshops. National areas are not proportional to attendance, as typically only one to four observatory leaders from each nation were able to attend, except for the host nations for each workshop, which were able to support additional local participants. The map serves as a reminder to planners of future VOBP workshops to seek as wide a range of participating volcanic nations as possible, and to try to fill in gaps in participation
Fig. 1 Global map showing nations represented at the VOBP workshops. Colors show nations that attended one or more of the workshops. National areas are not proportional to attendance, as typically only one to four observatory leaders from each nation were able to attend, except for the host nations for each workshop, which were able to support additional local participants. The map serves as a reminder to planners of future VOBP workshops to seek as wide a range of participating volcanic nations as possible, and to try to fill in gaps in participationCC-BY · From the PDF
Fig. 2 Participants in the VOBP3 workshop on long-term hazard assessment in Vancouver, USA
Fig. 2 Participants in the VOBP3 workshop on long-term hazard assessment in Vancouver, USACC-BY · From the PDF
Image 3
CC-BY · From the PDF
Fig. 4 International participants in the VOBP1 workshop on near-term forecasting in Erice, Italy
Fig. 4 International participants in the VOBP1 workshop on near-term forecasting in Erice, ItalyCC-BY · From the PDF
Image 5
CC-BY · From the PDF
Fig. 6 Participants in the VOBP2 workshop on hazard communication in Erice, Italy
Fig. 6 Participants in the VOBP2 workshop on hazard communication in Erice, ItalyCC-BY · From the PDF
Fig. 7 Flow chart illustrating how best practices recommendations of VOBP3 contribute to effective hazard communication. The starting point (a requirement for hazard alerts, warnings, forecasts) assumes that protocols are pre-established for the roles of the observatory and other entities involved in civil protection. Flow chart symbols as in Fig. 3
Fig. 7 Flow chart illustrating how best practices recommendations of VOBP3 contribute to effective hazard communication. The starting point (a requirement for hazard alerts, warnings, forecasts) assumes that protocols are pre-established for the roles of the observatory and other entities involved in civil protection. Flow chart symbols as in Fig. 3CC-BY · From the PDF

Verification

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Citations

Cites

No references could be resolved yet.

Research works printed but not linked: 150

  1. Aitsi-Selmi A, Blanchard K, Al-Khudhairy D, Ammann W, Basabe P, Johnston D, Ogallo L, Onishi T, Renn O, Revi A, Roth C, Peijun S, Schneider J, Wenger D, Murray V. UNISDR STAG 2015 report: science is used for disaster risk reduction. 2015. http://preventionweb.net/go/42848
  2. Aiuppa A, Burton M, Caltabiano T, Giudice G, Guerrieri S, Liuzzo M, Murè F, Salerno G. Unusually large magmatic CO2 gas emissions prior to a basaltic paroxysm. Geophys Res Lett. 2010;37. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043837 . · DOI
  3. Aiuppa A, Moretti R, Federico C, Giudice G, Gurrieri S, Liuzzo M, Papale P, Shinohara H, Valenza M. Forecasting Etna eruptions by real-time observation of volcanic gas composition. Geology. 2007;35:1115–8. · DOI
  4. Andreastuti S, Paripurno E, Gunawan H, Budianto A, Syahbana D, Pallister J. Character of community response to volcanic crises at Sinabung and Kelud volcanoes. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 2017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.01.022 . · DOI
  5. Andreastuti S, Subandriyo J, Sumarti S, Sayudi D. The importance of communication in hazard zone areas: case study during and after 2010 Merapi eruption, Indonesia. In: Loughlin SC, Sparks RSJ, Brown SF, Jenkins SF, Vye-Brown C, editors. Global volcanic hazards and risk. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2015. p. 267–71. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316276273.012 . · DOI
  6. Aspinall W, Cooke RM. Expert judgement and the Montserrat Volcano eruption. In: Proceedings of the 4th international conference on probabilistic safety assessment and management PSAM4, vol. 3; 1998. p. 13–8.
  7. Astuti G, Giudice G, Longo D, Melita CD, Muscato G, Orlando A. An overview of the “Volcan project”: an UAS for exploration of volcanic environments. In: Valavanis KP, Oh P, Piegl LA, editors. Unmanned aircraft systems. Dordrecht: Springer; 2008. p. 471–94. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-9137-7_25 . · DOI
  8. Auker MR, Sparks RSJ, Siebert L, Crosweller HS, Ewert JW. A statistical analysis of the global historical volcanic fatalities record. J Appl Volcanol. 2013;2:2. https://doi.org/10.1186/2191-5040-2-2 . · DOI
  9. Bazelon DL. Risk and responsibility. Science. 1979;205:277–80. · DOI
  10. Becerril L, Bartolini S, Sobradelo R, Marti J, Morales JM, Galindo I. Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands). Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci. 2014;14:1853–70. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1853-2014 . · DOI
  11. Biggs J, Anthony EY, Ebinger CJ. Multiple inflation and deflation events at Kenyan volcanoes, east African rift. Geology. 2009;37(11):979–82. https://doi.org/10.1130/G30133A.1 . · DOI
  12. Biggs J, Ebmeier SK, Aspinall WP, Lu Z, Pritchard ME, Sparks RSJ, Mather TA. Global link between deformation and volcanic eruption quantified by satellite imagery. Nature Comms. 2014;5:3471. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms4471 . · DOI
  13. BNPB – Badan Nasional Penaggulangan Dencana (Indonesian National Board for Disaster Management). Ketangguhan Bangsa Dalam Menghadapi Bencana: dari Wasior, Mentawai, Hingga Merapi. GEMA BNPB. 2011;2:48.
  14. Bojke L, Claxton K, Schulpher M, Palmer S. Characterizing structural uncertainty in decision analytic models: a review and application of methods. Value Health. 2009;12(6):739–49. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1524-4733.2008.00502.x . · DOI
  15. Bonadonna C, Connor CB, Houghton BF, Connor L, Byrne M, Laing A, Hincks TK. Probabilistic modeling of tephra dispersal: Hazard assessment of a multiphase rhyolitic eruption at Tarawera, New Zealand. J Geophysical Res. 2005;110:b03203. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JB002896 . · DOI
  16. Box GEP. Science and statistics. J Am Statistical Assn. 2012;71(356):791–9. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1976.10480949 . · DOI · Paper page
  17. Bretton RJ, Gottsmann J, Aspinall WP, Christie R. Implications of legal scrutiny processes (including the L’Aquila trial and other recent court cases) for future volcanic risk governance. J Appl Volcanol. 2015;4(18). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-015-0034-x . · DOI
  18. Bretton RJ, Gottsmann J, Christie R. Hazard communication by volcanologists: part 1 - Framing the case for contextualisation and related quality standards in volcanic hazard assessments. J Appl Volcanol. 2018a;7:9. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-018-0077-x . · DOI
  19. Bretton RJ, Gottsmann J, Christie R. Hazard communication by volcanologists: part 2 - quality standards for volcanic hazard assessments. J Appl Volcanol. 2018b;7:10. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-018-0079-8 . · DOI
  20. Brown SK, Crosweller HS, Sparks RSJ, Cottrell E, Deligne NI, Guerrero NO, Hobbs L, Kiyosugi K, Loughlin SC, Siebert L, Takarada S. Characterization of the quaternary eruption record: analysis of the large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions (LaMEVE) database. J Appl Volcanol. 2014;3(1):–22. · DOI
  21. Brown SK, Sparks RSJ, Jenkins SF. Global distribution of volcanic threat. In: Loughlin SC, Sparks RSJ, Brown SK, Jenkins S, Vye-Brown C, editors. Global volcanic hazards and risk. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2015. p. 343–53.
  22. Browning J, Drymoni K, Gudmundsson A. Forecasting magma-chamber rupture at Santorini volcano, Greece. Nature Sci Rep. 2015;5:15785. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep15785 . · DOI
  23. Bustillos JA, Romero JE, Troncoso L, Guevara AC. Tephra fall at Tungurahua Volcano (Ecuador) – 1999-2014: An Example of Tephra Accumulation from a Long-lasting Eruptive Cycle. Geofisica Intl. 2016;55(1):55–67 http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?pid=S0016-71692016000100055&script=sci_arttext&tlng=en .
  24. Carlino S. The process of resurgence for Ischia Island (southern Italy) since 55 ka: the laccolith model and implications for eruption forecasting. Bull Volcanol. 2012;74:947–61. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-012-0578-0 . · DOI
  25. Casadevall TJ. Volcanic ash and aviation safety: proceedings of the first international symposium. U.S Geol Surv Bull. 1994;2047:450.
  26. Cashman KV. Volatile controls on magma ascent and eruption. In: Sparks RSJ, Hawkesworth CJ, editors. The state of the planet: frontiers and challenges in geophysics. AGU geophys monogr series, vol. 150. Washington D.C; 2004. p. 109–24. https://doi.org/10.1029/150GM10 . · DOI
  27. Cassisi C, Prestifilippo M, Cannata A, Montalto P, Patanè D, Privitera E. Probabilistic reasoning over seismic time series: Volcano monitoring by hidden Markov models at Mt. Etna. Pure Appl Geophys. 2016;173:2365–86 http://hdl.handle.net/2122/10481 . · DOI
  28. Chaussard E, Amelung F. Precursory inflation of shallow magma reservoirs at west Sunda volcanoes detected by InSAR. Geophys Res Lett. 2012;39(21):L21311. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053817 . · DOI
  29. Chouet BA. Long-period volcano seismicity: its source and use in eruption forecasting. Nature. 1996;380:309–16. https://doi.org/10.1038/380309a0 . · DOI
  30. Cocco M, Cultrera G, Amato A, Braun T, Cerase A, Margheriti L, Bonaccorso A, Demartin M, De Martini PM, Galadini F, Meletti C, Nostro C, Pacor F, Pantosti D, Pondrelli S, Quareni F, Todesco M. The L’Aquila trial. Geol Soc Lond Sp Pub. 2015;419:43–55. https://doi.org/10.1144/SP419.13 . · DOI
  31. Constantinescu R, Robertson R, Lindsay JM, Tonini R, Sandri L, Rouwet D, Smith P, Stewart R. Application of the probabilistic model BET_UNREST during a volcanic unrest simulation exercise in Dominica, Lesser Antilles. Geochem Geophys Geosyst. 2016;17:4438–56. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GC006485 . · DOI
  32. Crandell DR, Booth B, Kusumadinata K, Shimozuru D, Walker GPL, Westercamp D. Source-book for volcanic-hazards zonation. In: Nat. Hazards Ser. 4. Paris: Unesco; 1984. p. 97.
  33. Crandell DR, Mullineaux DR. Volcanic hazards at mount Rainier, Washington. U.S. Geol Surv Bull. 1967;1238:22.
  34. Crandell DR, Mullineaux DR. Potential hazards from future eruptions of Mount. St. Helens volcano, Washington. In: U.S. Geol. Surv.Bulletin 1383-C; 1978. p. 26. 2 pl.
  35. Crandell DR, Mullineaux DR, Rubin M. Mount St. Helens Volcano: Recent and future behavior. Science. 1975;187:438–42. · DOI · Paper page
  36. Cronin SJ, Petterson MG, Taylor PW, Biliki R. Maximising multi-stakeholder participation in government and community volcanic hazard management programs; a case study from Savo, Solomon islands. Nat Hazards. 2004;33:105–36. · DOI
  37. Dacre HF, Grant ALM, Hogan RJ, Belcher SE, Thomson DJ, Devenish BJ, Marenco F, Hort MC, Haywood JM, Ansmann A, Mattis I, Clarisse L. Evaluating the structure and magnitude of the ash plume during the initial phase of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption using lidar observations and NAME simulations. J Geophys Res Atmos. 2011;116:D20. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD015608 . · DOI
  38. Driedger, C, Calvache M, Cortés GP, Ewert J, Montoya J, Lockhart A, Allen R, Banks D, Beason S, Bocanegra HT, Burkhart F, Bustad K, Gallego JA, Gibson Z, Giraldo FR, Gutierrez C, Quintero JI, Rodríguez E, Schelling J, Scott M. Leveraging lessons learned to prevent future disasters—insights from the 2013 Colombia-USA Binational Exchange and a Nevado del Ruiz Retrospective. 2018 (in review).
  39. Dzierma Y, Wehrmann H. Eruption time series statistically examined: Probabilities of future eruptions at Villarrica and Llaima Volcanoes, Southern Volcanic Zone, Chile. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 2010;193(1–2):82–92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.03.009 . · DOI
  40. Dzurisin D, Lisowski M, Wicks CW. Continuing inflation at Three Sisters volcanic center, central Oregon Cascade Range, USA, from GPS, leveling, and InSAR observations. Bull Volcanol. 2009;71:1091. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-009-0296-4 . · DOI
  41. Dzurisin D. Mount St. Helens retrospective: lessons learned since 1980 and remaining challenges. Front Earth Sci. 2018;6:142. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00142 . · DOI · Paper page
  42. Edmonds M. New geochemical insights into volcanic degassing. Phil Trans R Soc A. 2008;366:4559–79. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0185 . · DOI
  43. Endo ET, Murray T. Real-time seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM): a volcano monitoring and prediction tool. Bull Volcanol. 1991;53(7):533–45. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00298154 . · DOI · Paper page
  44. Ewert JW. System for ranking relative threats of US volcanoes. Nat Hazards Rev. 2007;8:112–24. · DOI
  45. Ewert JW, Diefenbach AK, Ramsey DW. 2018 update to the U.S. Geological Survey national volcanic threat assessment. In: U.S. Geol. Surv. Sci. Invest. Rpt. 2018–5140; 2018. p. 40. https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20185140 . · DOI
  46. Ewert JW, Guffanti M, Murray TL. An assessment of volcanic threat and monitoring capabilities in the United States: framework for a National Volcano Early Warning System. In: U. S., Geol. Surv. Open-File Rept. 2005–1164; 2005. p. 62.
  47. Fearnley C, Winson AEG, Pallister J, Tilling R. Volcano crisis communication: challenges and solutions in the twenty-first century. In: Fearnley CJ, Bird DK, Haynes K, McGuire WJ, Jolly G, editors. Observing the Volcano World; Advances in Volcanology (An Official Book Series of the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior – IAVCEI, Barcelona, Spain). Cham: Springer; 2018b. https://doi.org/10.1007/11157_2017_28 . · DOI
  48. Fearnley CJ, Bird DK, Haynes K, McGuire WJ, Jolly G, editors. Observing the Volcano World; Advances in Volcanology (An Official Book Series of the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior – IAVCEI, Barcelona, Spain). Cham: Springer; 2018a. p. 773. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-44097-2 . · DOI
  49. Fee D, Matoza RS. An overview of volcano infrasound: From hawaiian to plinian, local to global. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 2013:123–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2012.09.002 . · DOI
  50. Galle B, Johnsson M, Rivera C, Zhang Y, Kihlman M, Kern C, Lehmann T, Platt U, Arellano S, Hidalgo S. Network for observation of volcanic and atmospheric change (NOVAC)—A global network for volcanic gas monitoring: Network layout and instrument description. J Geophys Res. 2010;115:D05304. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD011823 . · DOI
  51. Gaunt HE, Bernard B, Hidalgo S, Proaño A, Wright H, Mothes P, Criollo E, Kueppers U. Juvenile magma recognition and eruptive dynamics inferred from the analysis of ash time series: The 2015 reawakening of Cotopaxi volcano. J Volcano Geotherm Res. 2017;328:134–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2016.10.013 . · DOI
  52. Géze B. Compte-rendu rédigé par le Secrétaire du Symposium. Bull Volcanol. 1959;23(1):3–20 https://link.springer.com/journal/445/23/1/page/1 .
  53. Global Volcanism Program. In: Venzke E, editor. Volcanoes of the world, vol. 4: Smithsonian Institution; 2013. p. 6.7. https://doi.org/10.5479/si.GVP.VOTW4-2013 . Downloaded 1 June 2018. · DOI
  54. GVM (Global Volcano Model). Global volcanic hazards and risk, summary background paper. Background paper prepared for the 2015 global assessment report on disaster risk reduction. Geneva: UNISDR; 2014.
  55. Hall ML, Robin C, Beate B, Mothes P, Monzier M. Tungurahua Volcano, Ecuador: structure, eruptive history and hazards. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 1999;91:1–21. · DOI
  56. Hidalgo S, Battaglia J, Arellano S, Sierra D, Bernard B, Parra R, Kelly P, Dinger F, Barrington C, Samaniego P. Evolution of the 2015 Cotopaxi eruption revealed by combined geochemical and seismic observations. Geochem Geophys Geosys. 2018;19:2087–108. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GC007514 . · DOI
  57. Hooper A, Zebker H, Segall P, Kampes B. A new method for measuring deformation on volcanoes and other natural terrains using InSAR persistent scatterers. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L23611. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021737 . · DOI
  58. IAVCEI Subcommittee for Crisis Protocols (Newhall C, Aramaki S, Barberi F, Blong R, Calvache M, Cheminee J-L, Punongbayan R, Siebe C, Simkin T, Sparks RSJ, Tjetjep W). Professional conduct of scientists during volcanic crises. Bull Volcanol. 1999;60:323–34. · DOI
  59. IAVCEI Task Group on Crisis Protocols (Giordano G, Bretton R, Calder E, Cas R, Gottsmann J, Lindsay J, Newhall C, Pallister J, Papale, P, Rodriguez L). Toward IAVCEI guideline on the roles and responsibilities of scientists involved in volcanic hazard evaluation, risk mitigation, and crisis response. Bull. Volcanol. 2016;78(31):1–3. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-016-1021-8 . · DOI
  60. Iguchi M, Yakiwara H, Tameguri T, Hendrasto M, Hirabayashi J-I. Mechanism of explosive eruption revealed by geophysical observations at the Sakurajima, Suwanosejima and Semeru volcanoes. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 2008;178(1):1–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.10.010 . · DOI
  61. Ishimine Y. Current status of volcanic disaster mitigation in Japan for effective cooperation between scientists and emergency managers. Volcano. 2016;1(1):183–98.
  62. Iverson RM, George DL, Logan M. Debris flow runup on vertical barriers and adverse slopes. J Geophys Res. 2016;121(12):2333–57. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JF003933 . · DOI
  63. Iverson RM, Schilling SP, Vallance JW. Objective delineation of lahar-inundation hazard zones. Geol Soc Am Bull. 1998;110(8):972–84. https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1998)110<0972:ODOLIH>2.3.CO;2 . · DOI
  64. Jordan TH. Lessons of L’Aquila for operational earthquake forecasting. Seismol Res Lett. 2013;84:4–7. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220120167 . · DOI
  65. Kazahaya K, Shinohara H, Uto K, Odai M, Nakahori Y, Hirokazu M, Iino H, Miyashita M, Hirabayashi J. Gigantic SO2 emission from Miyakejima volcano, Japan, caused by caldera collapse. Geology. 2004;32(5):425–8. https://doi.org/10.1130/G20399.1 . · DOI
  66. Keller, C. Using a familiar risk comparison within a risk ladder to improve risk understanding by low numerates: a study of visual attention. Risk Analysis; 2011;31:7:1043–1054. doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01577.x · DOI
  67. Keller C, Siegrist M, Visschers C. Effect of risk ladder format on risk perception in high- and low-numerate individuals. Risk Analysis. 2009;29(9):1255–64. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01261.x . · DOI
  68. Koyaguchi T. Physical phenomena of volcanic eruptions and magma ascent: towards forecasting volcanic eruption sequence based on physical models and field observations. Bull Volcanol Soc Japan. 2016;61(1):37–68.
  69. Lirer L, Petrosino P, Alberico I, Postiglione I. Long-term volcanic hazard forecasts based on Somma-Vesuvio past eruptive history. Bull Volcanol. 2001;63:45–60. https://doi.org/10.1007/s004450000121 . · DOI
  70. Loughlin SC, Sparks RSJ, Brown SK, Jenkins S, Vye-Brown C. Global volcanic hazards and risk. Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press; 2015. p. 394. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316276273 . · DOI
  71. Lowenstern JB, Sisson TW, Hurwitz S. Probing magma reservoirs to improve volcano forecasts. EOS 99. 2016;6:16–21 https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jacob_Lowenstern/publication/320588486_Probing_Magma_Reservoirs_to_Improve_Volcano_Forecasts/links/59f937f3aca272607e2f71a4/Probing-Magma-Reservoirs-to-Improve-Volcano-Forecasts.pdf .
  72. Lu Z, Dzurisin D. InSAR imaging of Aleutian volcanoes. Springer Praxis books. Berlin: Springer; 2014. p. 389. https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2F978-3-642-00348-6.pdf · DOI
  73. Macedonio G, Costa A, Scollo S, Neri A. Effects of eruption source parameter variation and meteorological dataset on tephra fallout hazard assessment: example from Vesuvius (Italy). J Appl Volcanol. 2016;5:5. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-016-0045-2 . · DOI
  74. Marzocchi W, Bebbington MS. Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales. Bull Volcanol. 2012;74(8):1777–805. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-012-0633-x . · DOI
  75. Marzocchi W, Newhall C, Woo G. The scientific management of volcanic crises. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 2012;247:181–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2012.08.016 . · DOI
  76. Marzocchi W, Sandri L, Selva J. BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long-and short-term eruption forecasting. Bull Volcanol. 2008;70(5):623–32. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y . · DOI
  77. Marzocchi W, Sandri L, Selva J. BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment. Bull Volcanol. 2010;72:705–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-010-0357-8 . · DOI
  78. Marzocchi W, Woo G. Probabilistic eruption forecasting and the call for an evacuation. Geophys Res Lett. 2007;34:L22310. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031922 . · DOI
  79. Mastin LG, Schwaiger H, Schneider DJ, Wallace KL, Schaefer J, Denlinger RP. Injection, transport, and deposition of tephra during event 5 at Redoubt Volcano, 23 March, 2009. J Volcano Geotherm Res. 2013;259:201–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2012.04.025 . · DOI
  80. McCausland WA, Gunawan H, White RA, Novianti I, Patria C, Suparman Y, Putra A, Triastuty H, Hendrasto M. Using a process-based model of pre-eruptive seismic patterns to forecast evolving eruptive styles at Sinabung Volcano, Indonesia. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 2017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.04.004 . · DOI
  81. McGonigle AJS, Aiuppa A, Giudice G, Tamburello G, Hodson AJ, Gurrieri S. Unmanned aerial vehicle measurements of volcanic carbon dioxide fluxes. Geophys Res Lett. 2008;35:L06303. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032508 . · DOI
  82. McNutt SR. Seismic monitoring and eruption forecasting of volcanoes: a review of the state-of-the-art and case histories. In: Scarpa R, Tilling RI, editors. Monitoring and mitigation of volcano hazards. Berlin: Springer; 1996. p. 99–146. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-80087-0_3 . · DOI
  83. Mendosa-Rosas AT, De La Cruz-Reyna SA. Statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series for volcanic hazard estimations: applications to active polygenetic volcanoes. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 2008;176(2):277–90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.04.005 . · DOI
  84. Merlhiot G, Mermillod M, Le Pennec J-L, Dutheil F, Mondillon L. Influence of uncertainty on framed decisionmaking with moral dilemma. PLoS One. 2018;3(5):e0197923. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0197923 . · DOI
  85. Miller CA, Jolly AD. A model for developing best practice volcano monitoring: a combined threat assessment, consultation and network effectiveness approach. Nat Hazards. 2014;71(1):493–522. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0928-z . · DOI
  86. Miller CD, Mullineaux DR, Crandell DR. Hazards assessments at Mount St. Helens. In: Lipman PW, Mullineaux DR, editors. The 1980 eruptions of Mount St. Helens, Washington; U.S. Geol. Soc. Prof. Pap. 1250; 1981. p. 789–802.
  87. Moran SC, Freymueller JT, RG LH, KA MG, Poland MP, Power JP, Schmidt DA, Schneider DJ, Stephens G, Werner CA, White RA. Instrumentation recommendations for volcano monitoring at U.S. volcanoes under the national volcano early warning system, USGS Sci. Invest. Rep. 2008–5114; 2008. p. 47.
  88. Nathenson M, Clynne MA, Muffler LJP. Eruption probabilities for the Lassen volcanic center and regional volcanism, Northern California, and probabilities for large explosive eruptions in the Cascade Range. In: U.S. Geol. Surv., Sci. Invest. Rep. 2012-5176-B; 2012. p. 23.
  89. Neri A, Aspinall WP, Cioni R, Bertagnini A, Baxter PJ, Zuccaro G, Andronico D, Barsotti S, Cole PD, Esposti Ongaro T, Hincks TK, Macedonio G, Papale P, Rosi M, Santacroce R, Woo G. Developing an Event Tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 2008;178:397–415. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.05.014 . · DOI
  90. Neri A, Bevilacqua A, Ongaro TE, Isaia R, Aspinall WP, Bisson M, Flandoli F, Baxter PJ, Bertagnini A, Iannuzzi E, Orsucci S, Pistolesi M, Rosi M, Viatle S. Quantifying volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty assessment: 2. Pyroclastic density current invasion maps. J Geophys Res. 2015;120:2330–49. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JB011776 . · DOI
  91. Neri M, Casu F, Acocella V, Solaro G, Pepe S, Berardino P, Sansosti E, Caltabiano T, Lundgren P, Lanari R. Deformation and eruptions at Mt. Etna (Italy): a lesson from 15 years of observations. Geophys Res Lett. 2009;36(2). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036151 . · DOI
  92. Newhall CG. A method for estimating intermediate- and long-term risks from volcanic activity, with an example from Mount St. Helens, Washington. In: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report; 1982. p. 82–396.
  93. Newhall CG, Costa F, Ratdomopurbo A, Venezky DY, Widiwijayanti C, Thin Zar Win N, Tan K, Fajiculay E. WOVOdat – An online, growing library of worldwide volcanic unrest. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 2017;345:184–99. · DOI
  94. Newhall CG, Hoblitt RP. Constructing event trees for volcanic crises. Bull Volcanol. 2002;64:3–20. · DOI · Paper page
  95. Newhall CG, Pallister JS. Using multiple data sets to populate probabilistic volcanic event trees. In: Papale P, editor. Volcanic hazards, risks, and disasters, vol. 2002. Amsterdam: Elsevier; 2015. p. 202–32. https://www.elsevier.com/books/volcanic-hazards-risks-and-disasters/shroder/978-0-12-396453-3 .
  96. Ogburn SE, Harpel CJ, Pesicek JD, Wellik J. The eruption forecasting information system: volcanic eruption forecasting using databases. In: Am. Geophys. Union, Fall Gen. Assembly; 2016. abstract #NH53B-2002.
  97. Pallister J, Wessels R, Griswold J, McCausalnd W, Kartadinata N, Gunawan H, Budiano A, Primulyana S. Monitoring, forecasting collapse events, and mapping pyroclastic deposits at Sinabung volcano with satellite imagery. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2018.05.012 . · DOI
  98. Pallister JS. Volcano disaster assistance program: preventing volcanic crises from becoming disasters and advancing science diplomacy. In: Loughlin SC, Sparks RSJ, Brown SK, Jenkins S, Vye-Brown C, editors. Global volcanic hazards and risk. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2015. p. 379–84. · DOI
  99. Pallister JS, Hoblitt RP, Crandell DR, Mullineaux D. Mount St. Helens a decade after the 1980 eruptions; magmatic models, chemical cycles, and a revised hazards assessment. Bull Volc. 1992;54:126–46. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00278003 . · DOI · Paper page
  100. Pallister JS, Schneider DJ, Griswold JP, Keeler RK, Burton WC, Noyles C, Newhall CG, Ratdomopurbo A. Merapi 2010 eruption – chronology and extrusion rates monitored with satellite radar and used in eruption forecasting. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 2013;261:144–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2012.07.012 . · DOI
  101. Papale P. Rational volcanic hazard forecasts and the use of volcanic alert levels. J Appl Volcanol. 2017;6:13. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-017-0064-7 . · DOI
  102. Papale P, De Natale G, the INGV ‘Campi Flegrei response team’. Observatory response to a volcanic crisis: the Campi Flegrei simulation exercise. In: Paper presented at the Cities on Volcanoes 8 Conference, Yogyakarta, Indonesia; 2014.
  103. Paton D, Smith L, Daly M, Johnston D. Risk perception and volcanic hazard mitigation: individual and social perspectives. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 2008;172:179–88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.026 . · DOI · Paper page
  104. Power JA, Jolly AD, Chouet BA, Haney MM, Ketner DM. A conceptual model of the Mount Spurr magmatic system from seismic and geochemical observations of the 1992 Crater Peak eruption sequence. Bull Volcanol. 2002;64:206–18. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-002-0201-x . · DOI
  105. Power JA, Stihler SD, Nye CJ, Harbin ML. Seismic observations of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska — 1989–2010 and a conceptual model of the Redoubt magmatic system. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 2013;259:31–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2012.09.014 . · DOI
  106. Prata AJ. Satellite detection of hazardous volcanic clouds and the risk to global air traffic. Nat Hazards. 2009;51(2):303–24. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9273-z . · DOI
  107. Pyle DM, Mather TA, Biggs J. Remote sensing of volcanoes and volcanic processes: integrating observation and modelling – introduction. In: Pyle DM, Mather TA, Biggs J, editors. Remote sensing of volcanoes and volcanic processes: integrating observation and modelling. Geol. Soc. Lond. Sp. Pub; 2013. p. 380. http://sp.lyellcollection.org/content/specpubgsl/early/2013/09/24/SP380.14.full.pdf .
  108. Ragona M, Hannstein F, Mazzocchi M. The financial impact of volcanic ash crisis on the European Airline industry. In: Alemanno A, editor. Governing disasters: the challenges of emergency risk regulations. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing; 2011. https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=ZWhDGvMZqSkC&oi=fnd&pg=PA27&dq=Ragona+impact+of+volcanic+ash&ots=Wc5jiz5a8n&sig=Z7eZLEgrSQ-lB8czNO4d6e5A7j0#v=onepage&q=Ragona%20impact%20of%20volcanic%20ash&f=false .
  109. Ratdomopurbo A, Beauducel F, Subandriyo J, Nandaka MA, Newhall CG, Suharna, Sayudi DS, Suparwaka H, Sunarta. Overview of the 2006 eruption of Mt. Merapi. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 2013;261:87–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2013.03.019 . · DOI
  110. Ricci T, Nave R, Barberi F. Vesuvio civil protection exercise MESIMEX: survey on volcanic risk perception. Annals Geophys. 2013;56:4. https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-6458 . · DOI
  111. Ripepe M, Marchetti E, Donne DD, Genco R, Innocenti G, Lacanna G, Valade S. Infrasonic early warning system for explosive eruptions. J Geophys Res. 2018. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JB015561 . · DOI
  112. Rüdiger J, Tirpitz J-L, De Moor JM, Bobrowski N, Gutmann A, Lizzo M, Ibarra M, Hoffmann T. Implementation of electrochemical, optical and denuder-based sensors and sampling techniques on UAV for volcanic gas measurements: examples from Masaya, Turrialba and Stromboli volcanoes. Atmos Meas Tech. 2018;1:2441–57. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2441-2018 . · DOI
  113. Salvi F, Scandone R, Palma C. Statistical analysis of the historical activity of Mount Etna, aimed at the evaluation of volcanic hazard. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 2006;154:159–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2006.01.002 . · DOI
  114. Sandri L, Jolly G, Lindsay J, Howe T, Marzocchi W. Combining long- and short-term probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from the Auckland volcanic field, New Zealand. Bull Volcanol. 2012;74:705–23. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-011-0556-y . · DOI
  115. Scandone R, Arganese G, Galdi F. The evaluation of volcanic risk in the Vesuvian area. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 1993;58:263–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(93)90112-5 . · DOI
  116. Schwaiger HF, Denlinger RP, Mastin LG. Ash3d: a finite-volume, conservative numerical model for ash transport and tephra deposition. J Geophys Res. 2012;117:B04204. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB008968 . · DOI
  117. Schwandner FM, Gunson MR, Miller CE, Carn SA, Eldering A, Krings T, Verhulst KR, Schimel DS, Nguyen HM, Crisp D, O’dell CW. Spaceborne detection of localized carbon dioxide sources. Science. 2017;358:6360. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aam5782 . · DOI
  118. Segall P. Volcano deformation and eruption forecasting. In: Geol. Soc. Lond., Sp. Pub. 380; 2013. p. 22. https://doi.org/10.1144/SP380.4 . · DOI
  119. Selva J, Costa A, De Natale G, Di Vito MA, Isaia R, Macedonio G. Sensitivity test and ensemble hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei, Italy. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 2018;351:1–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.11.024 . · DOI
  120. Selva J, Marzocchi W, Papale P, Sandri L. Operational eruption forecasting at high-risk volcanoes: the case of Campi Flegrei, Naples. J Appl Volcanol. 2012;1:5. https://doi.org/10.1186/2191-5040-1-5 . · DOI
  121. Sennert SSK, Klemetti EW, Bird DK. Role of social media and networking in volcanic crises and communication. In: Fearnley CJ, Bird DK, Haynes K, McGuire WJ, Jolly G, editors. Observing the volcano world; advances in volcanology (An Official Book Series of the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior – IAVCEI, Barcelona, Spain). Cham: Springer; 2015. p. 733–43. https://doi.org/10.1007/11157_2015_13 . · DOI
  122. Sheridan MF, Patra AK, Dalbey K, Hubbard B. Probabilistic digital hazard maps for avalanches and massive pyroclastic flows using TITAN2D. In: Groppeli G, Viereck-Goette L, editors. Stratigraphy and geology of volcanic areas: Geol. Soc. Am. Sp. Pap. 464; 2010. p. 281–91. https://doi.org/10.1130/2010.2464(14) . · DOI
  123. Shimozuru D. Volcano hazard assessment of Mount Fuji. J Nat Disaster Sci. 1983;5(2):15–31 http://dl.ndl.go.jp/view/download/digidepo_10752613_po_ART0002956211.pdf?contentNo=1&alternativeNo .
  124. Shinohara H. Composition of volcanic gases emitted during repeating Vulcanian eruption stage of Shinmoedake, Kirishima volcano, Japan. Earth Planet Sp. 2013;65:17. https://doi.org/10.5047/eps.2012.11.001 . · DOI
  125. Sigmundsson F, Hooper A, Hreinsdóttir S, Vogfjörd KS, Ófeigsson BG, Heimisson ER, Dumont S, Parks M, Spaans K, Gudmundsson GB, Drouin V, Árnadóttir T, Jónsdóttir K, Gudmundsson MT, Högnadóttir T, Fridriksdóttir HM, Hensch M, Einarsson P, Magnússon E, Samsonov S, Brandsdóttir B, White RS, Ágústsdóttir T, Greenfield T, Green RG, Hjartardóttir AR, Pedersen R, Bennett RA, Geirsson H, La Femina PC, Björnsson H, Pálsson F, Sturkell E, Bean CJ, Möllhoff M, Braiden AK, Eibl EPS. Segmented lateral dyke growth in a rifting event at Bárðarbunga volcanic system, Iceland. Nature. 2015;517:191–5. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14111 (online December 15, 2014). · DOI
  126. Solidum RU, Duran-Alegre L. Hazard mapping and assessment for effective community-based disaster risk management (READY) project. Asian J Environ Disaster Mgmt. 2011;3(1):79–92. https://doi.org/10.3850/S1793924011000629 . · DOI
  127. Sparks RSJ. Forecasting volcanic eruptions. Earth Planet Sci Lett. 2003;10:1–15. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(03)00124-9 . · DOI
  128. Sparks RSJ, Biggs J, Neuberg JW. Monitoring volcanoes. Science. 2012;335(6074):1310–1. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1219485 . · DOI
  129. Sparks RSJ, Cashman KV. Dynamic magma systems: implications for forecasting volcanic activity. Elements. 2017;13:35–40. https://doi.org/10.2113/gselements.13.1.35 . · DOI
  130. Stone J, Barclay J, Simmons P, Cole PD, Loughlin SC, Ramón P, Mothes P. Risk reduction through community-based monitoring: the vigías of Tungurahua, Ecuador. J Appl Volcanol. 2015;3:11. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-014-0011-9 . · DOI
  131. Sudradjat AG. Lokon-Empung. Berita Berkala Vulkanologi, Edisi Khusus (Republic of Indonesia, Directorate of Volcanology Special Edition No. 114). 1986 (Hazard assessment for Lokon-Empung volcano).
  132. Surono, Jousset P, Pallister J, Boichu M, Buongiorno MF, Budisantoso A, Costa F, Andreastuti S, Prata F, Schneider D, Clarisse L, Humaida H, Sumarti S, Bignami C, Griswold J, Carn S, Oppenheimer C. The 2010 explosive eruption of Java’s Merapi volcano — a ‘100-year’ event. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 2012;241:121–35. · DOI
  133. Swanson DA, Casadevall TJ, Dzurisin D, Malone SD, Newhall CG, Weaver CS. Predicting eruptions at Mount St. Helens, June 1980 through December 1982. Science. 1983;221:1369–76. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.221.4618.1369 . · DOI · Paper page
  134. Tanaka HKM, Nakano T, Takahashi S, Yoshida J, Ohshima H, Maekawa T, Watanabe H, Niwa K. Imaging the conduit size of the dome with cosmic-ray muons: the structure beneath Showa-Shinzan Lava Dome, Japan. Geophys Res Lett. 2007;34(22):L22311. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031389 . · DOI
  135. Thouret J-C, Lavigne F, Kelfoun K, Bronto S. Toward a revised hazard assessment at Merapi volcano, Central Java. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 2000;100:479–502. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0273(00)00152-9 . · DOI
  136. Turner NR, Perroy RL, Hon K. Lava flow hazard prediction and monitoring with UAS: a case study from the 2014–2015 Pāhoa lava flow crisis, Hawai‘i. J Appl Volcanol. 2017;6:17. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-017-0068-3 . · DOI
  137. UNDRO (United Nations Disaster Relief Organization). Volcanic emergency management. Geneva: Office of the United Nations Disaster Relief Coordination; 1985.
  138. UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization). The surveillance and prediction of volcanic activity: a review of methods and techniques. UNESCO, Paris; 1972. p. 166.
  139. UNISDR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction). Hyogo framework for action 2005–2015: building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters. - final report. In: World Conference on Disaster Reduction. Kobe: UNISDR; 2005. https://www.unisdr.org/files/1037_hyogoframeworkforactionenglish.pdf .
  140. UNISDR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction), Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction. 2015. https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf
  141. Voight B. The 1985 Nevado del Ruiz volcano catastrophe: anatomy and retrospection. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 1990;42:151–88. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(90)90027-D . · DOI
  142. Wanke M, Clynne MA, von Quadt A, Vennemann TW, Bachmann O. Geochemical and petrological diversity of mafic magmas from Mount St. Helens. Contrib Min Petrol. 2019b;174:10. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00410-018-1544-4 . · DOI
  143. Wanke M, Karakas O, Bachmann O. The genesis of arc dacites: the case of Mount St. Helens, WA. Contrib Min Petrol. 2019a;174:7. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00410-018-1542-6 . · DOI
  144. Werner C, Kelly PJ, Doukas M, Lopez T, Pfeffer M, McGimsey R, Neal C. Degassing of CO2, SO2, and H2S associated with the 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 2013;259:270–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2012.04.012 . · DOI
  145. White R, McCausland W. A process-based model of pre-eruption seismicity patterns and its use for eruption forecasting at dormant stratovolcanoes. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.04.004 . · DOI
  146. White R, McCausland WA. Volcano-tectonic earthquakes: A new tool for estimating intrusive volumes and forecasting eruptions. J Volcanol Geotherm Res. 2016;309:139–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.10.020 . · DOI
  147. Widiwijayanti C, Voight B, Hidayat D, Schilling S. Objective rapid delineation of areas at risk from block-and-ash pyroclastic flows and surges. Bull Volcanol. 2009;71(6):687–703. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-008-0254-6 . · DOI
  148. Wolpert RL, Ogburn SE, Calder ES. The longevity of lava dome eruptions. J Geophys Res. 2016;121:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012435 . · DOI
  149. Wright R, Blake S, Harris AJL, Rothery DA. A simple explanation for the space-based calculation of lava eruption rates. Earth Planet Sci Lett. 2001;192(2):223–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(01)00443-5 . · DOI
  150. Wright R, Flynn L, Garbeil H, Harris A, Pilger E. Automated volcanic eruption detection using MODIS. Rem Sens Environ. 2002;82(1):135–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0034-4257(02)00030-5 . · DOI

Cited by

Metadata

Authors
Pallister, J., Papale, P., Eichelberger, J., Newhall, C., Mandeville, C., Nakada, S., Marzocchi, W., Loughlin, S., Jolly, G., Ewert, J., & Selva, J.
Venue
Journal of Applied Volcanology
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2019-03-13
Volume
8
Issue
1
ISSN
2191-5040
DOI
10.1186/s13617-019-0082-8
Cited by
68
References
0
Language
en
Licence
Funders
  • U.S. Geological Survey
  • National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology
  • USAID Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review