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Disease-Free Survival Versus Overall Survival As a Primary End Point for Adjuvant Colon Cancer Studies: Individual Patient Data From 20,898 Patients on 18 Randomized Trials
Abstract
PURPOSE: A traditional end point for colon adjuvant clinical trials is overall survival (OS), with 5 years demonstrating adequate follow-up. A shorter-term end point providing convincing evidence to allow treatment comparisons could significantly speed the translation of advances into practice. METHODS: Individual patient data were pooled from 18 randomized phase III colon cancer adjuvant clinical trials. Trials included 43 arms, with a pooled sample size of 20,898 patients. The primary hypothesis was that disease-free survival (DFS), with 3 years of follow-up, is an appropriate primary end point to replace OS with 5 years of follow-up. RESULTS: The recurrence rates for years 1 through 5 were 12%, 14%, 8%, 5%, and 3%, respectively. Median time from recurrence to death was 12 months. Eighty percent of recurrences were in the first 3 years; 91% of patients with recurrence by 3 years died before 5 years. Correlation between 3-year DFS and 5-year OS was 0.89. Comparing control versus experimental arms within each trial, the correlation between hazard ratios for DFS and OS was 0.92. Within-trial log-rank testing using both DFS and OS provided the same conclusion in 23 (92%) of 25 cases. Formal measures of surrogacy were satisfied. CONCLUSION: In patients treated on phase III adjuvant colon clinical trials, DFS and OS are highly correlated, both within patients and across trials. These results suggest that DFS after 3 years of median follow-up is an appropriate end point for adjuvant colon cancer clinical trials of fluorouracil-based regimens, although marginally significant DFS improvements may not translate into significant OS benefits.
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“The validity of this approach, though not uncontroversial [13], is relatively well supported by data derived from a wide range of solid tumour settings including in colon [14], gastric [15], lung [16] and breast [17] cancers.”
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Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Sargent, D. J., Wieand, H. S., Haller, D. G., Gray, R., Benedetti, J. K., Buyse, M., Labianca, R., Seitz, J. F., O'Callaghan, C. J., Francini, G., Grothey, A., O'Connell, M., Catalano, P. J., Blanke, C. D., Kerr, D., Green, E., Wolmark, N., Andre, T., Goldberg, R. M., & De Gramont, A.
- Affiliations
- University of Siena (IT)
- From the North Central Cancer Treatment Group, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN; National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project Statistical Center and Operations Office, Pittsburgh; Abramson Cancer Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA; QUASAR Collaborative Group, Birmingham and Oxford, United Kingdom; Southwest Oncology Group Statistical Center, Seattle, WA; International Drug Development Institute, Brussels, Belgium; Ospedali Riuniti, Bergamo; University of Siena, Siena, Italy; University...
- ORCID
- Venue
- Journal of Clinical Oncology
- Published
- 2005-12-01
- Volume
- 23
- Issue
- 34
- Pages
- 8664-8670
- ISSN
- 0732-183X (ISSN-L)
- 1527-7755
- OpenAlex
- W2172116130
- Cited by
- 713
- References
- 34
- Citations by year
- 2026: 19 · 2025: 14 · 2024: 19 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 34 · 2021: 32 · 2020: 27 · 2019: 20 · 2018: 24 · 2017: 30 · 2016: 26 · 2015: 40 · 2014: 36 · 2013: 40 · 2012: 44
- FWCI
- 48.43
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Clinical Oncology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Document Server@UHasselt (UHasselt) (submittedVersion)
- University of Birmingham Research Portal (University of Birmingham) (submittedVersion)
- Use Siena air (University of Siena) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Cancer Institute ((CA-25224, U10CA025224)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Colorectal Cancer Treatments and Studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Colorectal Cancer Surgical Treatments
- Keywords
- colon cancer, adjuvant chemotherapy, disease-free survival, overall survival, primary endpoint, surrogate endpoints, hazard ratio correlation, recurrence, individual patient data pooling
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols, Colonic Neoplasms, Combined Modality Therapy, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Neoplasm Recurrence, Local, Regression Analysis, Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic, Treatment Outcome, Chemotherapy, Adjuvant, Disease-Free Survival
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