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The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis
Abstract
China's per capita income ranks below 100th in the world. Its saving rate, however, has been one of the highest worldwide in recent decades. In this paper, we attempt to explain the seeming paradox within the framework of the Life-Cycle Hypothesis developed by Franco Modigliani. The key LCH variables are income and population growth. Our results based on data we put together from official sources show that income growth has been the dominant factor behind the dramatic increase in China's saving rate, as predicted by the LCH. Demographic structure and inflation also had significant impact on the fluctuations of the saving rate.
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Cites
Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1913236 · Cited by 32,007
Cited by
Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?
Chamon, M. D., & Prasad, E. S. (2010) · American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics · doi:10.1257/mac.2.1.93 · Cited by 296
Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China
Curtis, C. C., Lugauer, S., & Mark, N. C. (2015) · American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics · doi:10.1257/mac.20130105 · Cited by 212
The One-Child Policy and Household Saving
Choukhmane, T., Coeurdacier, N., & Jin, K. (2023) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1093/jeea/jvad001 · Cited by 63
Aggregate Fertility and Household Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis using Micro Data
Banerjee, A., Meng, X., Porzio, T., & Qian, N. (2014) · doi:10.3386/w20050 · Cited by 57
Public Pension and Household Saving: Evidence from China
Feng, J., He, L., & Sato, H. (2009) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1379942 · Cited by 31
Metadata
- Authors
- Modigliani, F., & Cao, S. L.
- Venue
- Journal of Economic Literature
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2004-03
- Volume
- 42
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 145-170
- ISSN
- 0022-0515 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2104298909
- Cited by
- 575
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 55.56
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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