Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?
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This paper estimates the effect on international trade of multilateral trade agreements—the World Trade Organization (WTO), its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) extended from rich countries to developing countries. I use a standard “gravity” model of bilateral merchandise trade and a large panel data set covering over 50 years and 175 countries. An extensive search reveals little evidence that countries joining or belonging to the GATT/WTO have different trade patterns from outsiders, though the GSP seems to have a strong effect.
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The estimate of the impact of WTO becomes negligible in magnitude and not statistically significant in column (7).
“the estimate of the impact of WTO becomes negligible in magnitude and not statistically significant.”
From Estimating the effects of trade agreements: Lessons from 60 years of methods and data (2024) · cites this paper as Rose, 2004
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Research works printed but not linked: 9
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- Authors
- Rose, A. K.
- Affiliations
- Center for Economic and Policy Research (US)
- Corresponding author
- Rose, Andrew K
- ORCID
- Rose, Andrew K
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2004-02-01
- Volume
- 94
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 98-114
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3122371890
- Cited by
- 1,481
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 28 · 2025: 37 · 2024: 46 · 2023: 40 · 2022: 42 · 2021: 58 · 2020: 71 · 2019: 39 · 2018: 59 · 2017: 51 · 2016: 52 · 2015: 91 · 2014: 88 · 2013: 74 · 2012: 89
- FWCI
- 118.65
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- papers.nber.org
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- OpenGrey (Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique) (submittedVersion)
- Cadmus - EUI Research Repository (European University Institute) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Global trade and economics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › World Trade Organization Law
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Strategy and Management › Global Trade and Competitiveness
- Keywords
- World Trade Organization, General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, Generalized System of Preferences, multilateral trade agreements, international trade effects, gravity model of trade, developing countries, trade liberalization
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