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The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks
Abstract
This paper investigates the impact of tax changes on economic activity. We use the narrative record, such as presidential speeches and Congressional reports, to identify the size, timing, and principal motivation for all major postwar tax policy actions. This analysis allows us to separate legislated changes into those taken for reasons related to prospective economic conditions and those taken for more exogenous reasons. The behavior of output following these more exogenous changes indicates that tax increases are highly contractionary. The effects are strongly significant, highly robust, and much larger than those obtained using broader measures of tax changes. (JEL E32, E62, H20, N12)
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Cites
Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment
Fazzari, S. M., Hubbard, R. G., Petersen, B. C., Blinder, A. S., & Poterba, J. M. (1988) · Brookings Papers on Economic Activity · doi:10.2307/2534426 · Cited by 5,574
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The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States
Mertens, K., & Ravn, M. O. (2013) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.103.4.1212 · Cited by 1,019
Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity
Fernández-Villaverde, J., Guerrón-Quintana, P., Kuester, K., & Rubio-Ramírez, J. (2015) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20121236 · Cited by 938
Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and Taxes *
Barro, R. J., & Redlick, C. J. (2011) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjq002 · Cited by 837
Bianchi, F., & Melosi, L. (2017) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20160186 · Cited by 220
Metadata
- Authors
- Romer, C. D., & Romer, D. H.
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2010-06-01
- Volume
- 100
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 763-801
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2140286179
- Cited by
- 2,091
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 322.78
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Romer, C. D., & Romer, D. H. (2010). The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks. American Economic Review. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.3.763
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
