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Thar She Bursts: Reducing Confusion Reduces Bubbles
Abstract
To explore why bubbles frequently emerge in the experimental asset market model of Smith, Suchanek, and Williams (1988), we vary the fundamental value process (constant or declining) and the cash– to–asset value ratio (constant or increasing). We observe high mispricing in treatments with a declining fundamental value, while overvaluation emerges when coupled with an increasing C/A ratio. A questionnaire reveals that the declining fundamental value process confuses subjects, as they expect the fundamental value to stay constant. Running the experiment with a different context (“stocks of a depletable gold mine” instead of “stocks”) significantly reduces mispricing and overvaluation as it reduces confusion. (JEL C91, D14, G11, G12)
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Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work
Fama, E. F. (1970) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.2307/2325486 · Cited by 13,635
Cited by
Evaluating replicability of laboratory experiments in economics
Camerer, C. F., Dreber, A., Forsell, E., Ho, T.-H., Huber, J., Johannesson, M., Kirchler, M., Almenberg, J., Altmejd, A., Chan, T., et al. (2016) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aaf0918 · Cited by 1,314
Self-citationPeer effects and risk sharing in experimental asset markets
Gortner, P. J., & van der Weele, J. J. (2019) · European Economic Review · doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.04.001 · Cited by 19
Metadata
- Authors
- Kirchler, M., Huber, J., & Stöckl, T.
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2012-04-01
- Volume
- 102
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 865-883
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2051032771
- Cited by
- 257
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 63.83
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Kirchler, M., Huber, J., & Stöckl, T. (2012). Thar She Bursts: Reducing Confusion Reduces Bubbles. American Economic Review. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.2.865
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