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Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers
Open accessAbstract
This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected. The relation is particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may in part reflect learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.
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Cited by
How Stock Market Liquidity Impact Economic Growth in South Africa
Chipaumire, G., & Ngirande, H. (2014) · Journal of Economics · doi:10.1080/09765239.2014.11884995 · Cited by 16
Metadata
- Authors
- Blanchard, O. J., & Leigh, D.
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2013-05-01
- Volume
- 103
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 117-120
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2062551580
- Cited by
- 1,414
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 386.35
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
