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New Evidence on the Aftermath of Financial Crises in Advanced Countries

Romer, Christina D., Romer, David H.·2017·American Economic Review

Abstract

This paper examines the aftermath of postwar financial crises in advanced countries. We construct a new semiannual series on financial distress in 24 OECD countries for the period 1967–2012. The series is based on assessments of the health of countries' financial systems from a consistent, real-time narrative source, and classifies financial distress on a relatively fine scale. We find that the average decline in output following a financial crisis is statistically significant and persistent, but only moderate in size. More important, we find that the average decline is sensitive to the specification and sample, and that the aftermath of crises is highly variable across major episodes. A simple forecasting exercise suggests that one important driver of the variation is the severity and persistence of financial distress itself. At the same time, we find little evidence of nonlinearities in the relationship between financial distress and the aftermaths of crises. (JEL E32, E44, G01, N10, N20)

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Metadata

Authors
Romer, C. D., & Romer, D. H.
Venue
American Economic Review
Published
2017-10-01
Volume
107
Issue
10
Pages
3072-3118
ISSN
0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W2757281979
Cited by
293
References
23
FWCI
43.86
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: New Evidence on the Aftermath of Financial Crises in Advanced Countries. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1257/aer.20150320
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Romer, C. D., & Romer, D. H. (2017). New Evidence on the Aftermath of Financial Crises in Advanced Countries. American Economic Review. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20150320

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Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.