The DOI matches its Crossref record; 3 of the 3 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Microeconomic Origins of Macroeconomic Tail Risks
Open accessAbstract
Using a multisector general equilibrium model, we show that the interplay of idiosyncratic microeconomic shocks and sectoral heterogeneity results in systematic departures in the likelihood of large economic downturns relative to what is implied by the normal distribution. Such departures can emerge even though GDP fluctuations are approximately normally distributed away from the tails, highlighting the different nature of large economic downturns from regular business-cycle fluctuations. We further demonstrate the special role of input-output linkages in generating tail comovements, whereby large recessions involve not only significant GDP contractions, but also large simultaneous declines across a wide range of industries. (JEL D57, E16, E23, E32)
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Cites
Engle, R. F. (1982) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1912773 · Cited by 20,795
Nadaraya, E. A. (1964) · Theory of Probability & Its Applications · doi:10.1137/1109020 · Cited by 3,462
The financial accelerator, and the flight to quality
Bernanke, B., Gertler, M., & Gilchrist, S. (1996) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.2307/2109844 · Cited by 2,351
Cited by
Corporate immunity to the COVID-19 pandemic
Ding, W., Levine, R., Lin, C., & Xie, W. (2021) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.03.005 · Cited by 1,484
Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake*
Carvalho, V. M., Nirei, M., Saito, Y. U., & Tahbaz-Salehi, A. (2021) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjaa044 · Cited by 939
Self-citationThe Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem
Baqaee, D. R., & Farhi, E. (2019) · Econometrica · doi:10.3982/ecta15202 · Cited by 512
Carvalho, V. M., & Tahbaz-Salehi, A. (2019) · Annual Review of Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-economics-080218-030212 · Cited by 384
Self-citationHow Important Are Sectoral Shocks?
Atalay, E. (2017) · American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics · doi:10.1257/mac.20160353 · Cited by 370
Metadata
- Authors
- Acemoglu, D., Ozdaglar, A., & Tahbaz-Salehi, A.
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2017-01-01
- Volume
- 107
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 54-108
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3123299105
- Cited by
- 317
- References
- 3
- FWCI
- 52.23
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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