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Cited by 608

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 45 of the 45 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations

Bordalo, Pedro, Gennaioli, Nicola, Ma, Yueran, Shleifer, Andrei·2020·American Economic Review
DOI 10.1257/aer.20181219
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Abstract

We study the rationality of individual and consensus forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), who examine predictability of forecast errors from forecast revisions. We find that individual forecasters typically overreact to news, while consensus forecasts under-react relative to full-information rational expectations. We reconcile these findings within a diagnostic expectations version of a dispersed information learning model. Structural estimation indicates that departures from Bayesian updating in the form of diagnostic overreaction capture important variation in forecast biases across different series, yielding a belief distortion parameter similar to estimates obtained in other settings. (JEL C53, D83, D84, E13, E17, E27, E47)

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Metadata

Authors
Bordalo, P., Gennaioli, N., Ma, Y., & Shleifer, A.
Venue
American Economic Review
Publisher
American Economic Association
Published
2020-09-01
Volume
110
Issue
9
Pages
2748-2782
ISSN
0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1257/aer.20181219
OpenAlex
W2888912427
Cited by
608
References
45
FWCI
44.62
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1257/aer.20181219
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Bordalo, P., Gennaioli, N., Ma, Y., & Shleifer, A. (2020). Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations. American Economic Review. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20181219

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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

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