The DOI matches its Crossref record.
The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy
Abstract
This paper examines the precision of conventional estimates of the NAIRU and the role of the NAIRU and unemployment in forecasting inflation. The authors find that, although there is a clear empirical Phillips relation, the NAIRU is imprecisely estimated, forecasts of inflation are insensitive to the NAIRU, and there are other leading indicators of inflation that are at least as good as unemployment. This suggests deemphasizing the NAIRU in public discourse about monetary policy and instead drawing on a richer variety of leading indicators of inflation.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cited by
Does the “New Economy” Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past?
Gordon, R. J. (2000) · Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.14.4.49 · Cited by 1,206
Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU
Gordon, R. J., & Stock, J. H. (1998) · Brookings Papers on Economic Activity · doi:10.2307/2534696 · Cited by 270
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Staiger, D., Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W.
- Venue
- Journal of Economic Perspectives
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 1997-02-01
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 33-49
- ISSN
- 0895-3309 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2041811101
- Cited by
- 661
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 81.65
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1257/jep.11.1.33
- The paper
- Staiger, D., Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1997). The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy. Journal of Economic Perspectives. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.11.1.33
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
