The DOI matches its Crossref record; 1 of the 1 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation
Abstract
We evaluate explanations for the absence of disinflation during the Great Recession and find popular explanations to be insufficient. We propose a new explanation for this puzzle within the context of a standard Phillips curve. If firms' inflation expectations track those of households, then the missing disinflation can be explained by the rise in their inflation expectations between 2009 and 2011. We present new econometric and survey evidence consistent with firms having similar expectations as households. The rise in household inflation expectations from 2009 to 2011 can be explained by the increase in oil prices over this time period. (JEL D84, E24, E32, E52, E58, Q35)
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Citations
Cites
WHY AGNOSTIC SIGN RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ENOUGH: UNDERSTANDING THE DYNAMICS OF OIL MARKET VAR MODELS
Kilian, L., & Murphy, D. P. (2012) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1111/j.1542-4774.2012.01080.x · Cited by 544
Cited by
Credit spreads and business cycle fluctuations
Gilchrist, S., & Zakrajšek, E. (2012) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.102.4.1692 · Cited by 2,213
Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Weber, M. (2022) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/718982 · Cited by 518
Self-citationBianchi, F., & Melosi, L. (2017) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20160186 · Cited by 220
Narratives About the Macroeconomy
Andre, P., Haaland, I., Roth, C., & Wohlfart, J. (2023) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4506321 · Cited by 100
Metadata
- Authors
- Coibion, O., & Gorodnichenko, Y.
- Venue
- American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2015-01-01
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 197-232
- ISSN
- 1945-7707 (ISSN-L)
- 1945-7715
- OpenAlex
- W2059215693
- Cited by
- 736
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 144.08
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Coibion, O., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2015). Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20130306
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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