The Incapacitation Effect of Incarceration: Evidence from Several Italian Collective Pardons
Abstract
We estimate the “incapacitation effect” on crime using variation in Italian prison population driven by eight collective pardons passed between 1962 and 1990. The prison releases are sudden (within one day), very large (up to 35 percent of the entire prison population), and happen nationwide. Exploiting this quasi-natural experiment we break the simultaneity of crime and prisoners and, in addition, use the national character of the pardons to separately identify incapacitation from changes in deterrence. The elasticity of total crime with respect to incapacitation is between −17 and −30 percent. A cost-benefit analysis suggests that Italy's prison population is below its optimal level. (JEL K42)
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Much of the literature focuses on incapacitation effects, finding reductions in crime while offenders are in prison.
“Much of this literature focuses on incapacitation effects, finding reductions in crime while offenders are in prison.”
From Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment (2020) · cites this paper as Barbarino and Mastrobuoni (2014)
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References 118 · Cited by 108
- Authors
- Barbarino, A., & Mastrobuoni, G.
- Affiliations
- Federal Reserve Board of Governors (US)
- University of Essex (GB)
- Venue
- American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2014-02-01
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1-37
- ISSN
- 1945-7731 (ISSN-L)
- 1945-774X
- OpenAlex
- W2102956079
- Cited by
- 108
- References
- 118
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 23 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 13 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 38.97
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Economic Journal Economic Policy (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Institutional Research Information System University of Turin (University of Turin) (submittedVersion)
- Open Access at Essex (University of Essex) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis
- Social Sciences › Law › Criminal Justice and Penology
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Law, Economics, and Judicial Systems
- Keywords
- prison population, crime rates, deterrence, prisoner release, quasi-natural experiment
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