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A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products
Abstract
This study deals with the dynamic sales behavior of successive generations of high-technology products. New technologies diffuse through a population of potential buyers over time. Therefore, diffusion theory models are related to this demand growth. Furthermore, successive generations of a technology compete with earlier ones, and that behavior is the subject of models of technological substitution. Building upon the Bass (Bass, F. M. 1969. A new-product growth model for consumer durables. Management Sci. 15(January) 215–227.) diffusion model, we develop a model which encompasses both diffusion and substitution. We demonstrate the forecasting properties of the model by estimating parameters over part of the data and projecting shipments for later periods.
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Citations
Cited by
Di Benedetto, C. A. (2015) · Wiley Encyclopedia of Management · doi:10.1002/9781118785317.weom130016 · Cited by 1,051
Peer effects in the diffusion of solar photovoltaic panels
Bollinger, B., & Gillingham, K. (2012) · Marketing Science · doi:10.1287/mksc.1120.0727 · Cited by 1,013
Kharrazi, H., Gonzalez, C. P., Lowe, K. B., Huerta, T. R., & Ford, E. W. (2018) · Journal of Medical Internet Research · doi:10.2196/10458 · Cited by 84
Haelg, L., Waelchli, M., & Schmidt, T. S. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aae161 · Cited by 36
Quantifying the global eco-footprint of wearable healthcare electronics
Yang, C., Wang, B., Wan, J., Kamath, A., You, F., & Tian, B. (2026) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09819-w · Cited by 36
Metadata
- Authors
- Norton, J. A., & Bass, F. M.
- Venue
- Management Science
- Published
- 1987-09
- Volume
- 33
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 1069-1086
- ISSN
- 0025-1909 (ISSN-L)
- 1526-5501
- OpenAlex
- W2168966530
- Cited by
- 932
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 4.15
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Norton, J. A., & Bass, F. M. (1987). A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products. Management Science. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.33.9.1069
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