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Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market?
Abstract
Long-term transition rates calculated from the Current Population Survey, the Survey of Income and Program Participation, and Rutgers University’s Work Trends Survey indicate that the long-term unemployed have a 20 to 40 percent lower probability of being employed 1 to 2 years in the future than do the short-term unemployed. In comparison with the short-term unemployed, for the long-term unemployed the job finding rate is less sensitive to the state of the business cycle, but their labor force withdrawal rate is more procyclical. A calibration exercise finds that the tendency of the labor force withdrawal rate of the long-term unemployed to decline in a recession and then rise in a recovery plays an important role in the well-documented loop around the Beveridge curve. Overall, the results suggest that the longer workers are unemployed, the less attached they become to the labor market.
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Citations
Cited by
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Card, D., Kluve, J., & Weber, A. (2018) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1093/jeea/jvx028 · Cited by 990
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Card, D., Kluve, J., & Weber, A. (2015) · doi:10.3386/w21431 · Cited by 136
The iceberg decomposition: a parsimonious way to map the health of labour markets
Baert, S. (2021) · Economic Analysis and Policy · doi:10.1016/j.eap.2020.12.012 · Cited by 14
Metadata
- Authors
- Krueger, A. B., Cramer, J., & Cho, D.
- Venue
- Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
- Publisher
- Project MUSE
- Published
- 2014-03
- Volume
- 2014
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 229-299
- ISSN
- 0007-2303 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-4465
- OpenAlex
- W2077377515
- Cited by
- 243
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 110.65
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Krueger, A. B., Cramer, J., & Cho, D. (2014). Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2014.0004
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