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A Core Inflation Indicator for the Euro Area
Open accessAbstract
This paper proposes a new core inflation indicator for the euro area, obtained by 'cleaning' monthly price changes from short-run volatility, idiosyncratic, and measurement errors. We use a factor model to "project" monthly inflation on a large panel of time series. Exploiting multivariate information we obtain a satisfactory degree of smoothing without using backward looking moving averages, which induce a time delay in the signal. The indicator forecasts inflation and is a useful tool for policy makers. It outperforms other commonly used predictors at 6 months and longer horizons. It tracks past policy interventions of the ECB.
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Cited by
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The financing of small innovative firms: the Italian case
Magri, S. (2009) · Economics of Innovation and New Technology · doi:10.1080/10438590701738016 · Cited by 409
What's Behind 'Inflation Perceptions'? A Survey-Based Analysis of Italian Consumers
Del Giovane, P., Fabiani, S., & Sabbatini, R. (2008) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1105734 · Cited by 275
What Are Borders Made of? An Analysis of Barriers to European Banking Integration
Affinito, M., & Piazza, M. (2009) · The Changing Geography of Banking and Finance · doi:10.1007/978-0-387-98078-2_9 · Cited by 267
Metadata
- Authors
- Cristadoro, R. (., Forni, M., Reichlin, L., & Veronese, G.
- Venue
- Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking
- Publisher
- Project MUSE
- Published
- 2005
- Volume
- 37
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 539-560
- ISSN
- 0022-2879 (ISSN-L)
- 1538-4616
- OpenAlex
- W2059583334
- Cited by
- 225
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 60.77
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: A Core Inflation Indicator for the Euro Area. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1353/mcb.2005.0028
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- Cristadoro, R. (., Forni, M., Reichlin, L., & Veronese, G. (2005). A Core Inflation Indicator for the Euro Area. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. https://doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2005.0028
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
