Non-linear concentration-response relationships between ambient ozone and daily mortality
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Ambient ozone (O3) concentration has been reported to be significantly associated with mortality. However, linearity of the relationships and the presence of a threshold has been controversial. OBJECTIVES: The aim of the present study was to examine the concentration-response relationship and threshold of the association between ambient O3 concentration and non-accidental mortality in 13 Japanese and Korean cities from 2000 to 2009. METHODS: We selected Japanese and Korean cities which have population of over 1 million. We constructed Poisson regression models adjusting daily mean temperature, daily mean PM10, humidity, time trend, season, year, day of the week, holidays and yearly population. The association between O3 concentration and mortality was examined using linear, spline and linear-threshold models. The thresholds were estimated for each city, by constructing linear-threshold models. We also examined the city-combined association using a generalized additive mixed model. RESULTS: The mean O3 concentration did not differ greatly between Korea and Japan, which were 26.2 ppb and 24.2 ppb, respectively. Seven out of 13 cities showed better fits for the spline model compared with the linear model, supporting a non-linear relationships between O3 concentration and mortality. All of the 7 cities showed J or U shaped associations suggesting the existence of thresholds. The range of city-specific thresholds was from 11 to 34 ppb. The city-combined analysis also showed a non-linear association with a threshold around 30-40 ppb. CONCLUSION: We have observed non-linear concentration-response relationship with thresholds between daily mean ambient O3 concentration and daily number of non-accidental death in Japanese and Korean cities.
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Recent studies found evidence of a threshold effect around 30 ppb (approximately 60 μg/m3) using the 24-hour average metric in the U.S., 30-40 ppb (approximately 60-80 μg/m3) in Korea and Japan, and 65 μg/m3 using the MDA8 metric in London, U.K.
“On the contrary, recent studies found evidence of a threshold effect around 30 ppb (approximately 60 μg/m3) using the 24-hour average metric in U.S. (Moolgavkar et al., 2013; Stylianou and Nicolich, 2009), 30–40 ppb (approximately 60–80 μg/m3) using the 24-hour average metric in Korea and Japan (Bae et al., 2015), and 65 μg/m3 using the MDA8 metric in London, U.K. (Atkinson et al., 2012).”
From Acute effect of ozone exposure on daily mortality in seven cities of Jiangsu Province, China: no clear evidence for threshold (2017) · cites this paper as Bae et al., 2015
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References 32 · Cited by 41
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- [25]Akaike H. An information criterion (AIC). Math Sci. 1976; 14: 5– 9.
- Authors
- Bae, S., Lim, Y.-H., Kashima, S., Yorifuji, T., Honda, Y., Kim, H., & Hong, Y.-C.
- Affiliations
- Seoul National University (KR)
- Hiroshima University (JP)
- Okayama University (JP)
- University of Tsukuba (JP)
- Corresponding author
- Hong, Yun-Chul
- Venue
- PLoS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2015-06-15
- Volume
- 10
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- e0129423
- ISSN
- 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC4468145
- OpenAlex
- W1557402492
- Cited by
- 41
- References
- 32
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 1 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 2
- FWCI
- 2.09
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Institutional Repositories DataBase (IRDB) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Terrestrial Environment Research Center (University of Tsukuba) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (25860462)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Indoor Air Quality and Microbial Exposure
- Keywords
- ambient ozone, air pollution, non-accidental mortality, concentration-dependent effects, nonlinearity, threshold effects, J-shaped association, U-shaped relationship, spline models, linear threshold model, generalized additive mixed models, Japanese cities, Korean cities
- MeSH terms
- Environmental Monitoring, Humans, Japan, Mortality, Ozone, Nonlinear Dynamics, Republic of Korea
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