New Forecasting Methodology Indicates More Disease And Earlier Mortality Ahead For Today’s Younger Americans
Open accessAbstract
Traditional methods of projecting population health statistics, such as estimating future death rates, can give inaccurate results and lead to inferior or even poor policy decisions. A new "three-dimensional" method of forecasting vital health statistics is more accurate because it takes into account the delayed effects of the health risks being accumulated by today's younger generations. Applying this forecasting technique to the US obesity epidemic suggests that future death rates and health care expenditures could be far worse than currently anticipated. We suggest that public policy makers adopt this more robust forecasting tool and redouble efforts to develop and implement effective obesity-related prevention programs and interventions.
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References 55 · Cited by 69
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- [3]National Center for Health Statistics Health, United States, 2009: with special feature on medical technology 2010 Hyattsville (MD): NCHS 20698070
- Authors
- Reither, E. N., Olshansky, S. J., & Yang, Y.
- Affiliations
- Utah State University (US)
- University of Illinois Chicago (US)
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
- Venue
- Health Affairs
- Publisher
- Health Affairs Publishing, LLC
- Published
- 2011-08
- Volume
- 30
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 1562-1568
- ISSN
- 0278-2715 (ISSN-L)
- 1544-5208
- PMC
- PMC3862028
- OpenAlex
- W2118910151
- Cited by
- 69
- References
- 55
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 1 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 6 · 2012: 10
- FWCI
- 21.79
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- europepmc.org
- Locations
- Health Affairs (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Carolina Digital Repository (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) (submittedVersion)
- UNC Libraries
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (2r24hd050924-06)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R24 HD-050924)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Obesity, Physical Activity, Diet
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
- Keywords
- obesity epidemic, delayed health effects, mortality rates, health care expenditure, obesity prevention, public health policy, younger generation
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Child, Child, Preschool, Epidemiology, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, United States, Young Adult, Mortality, Premature
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