Economic Growth, Climate Change, and Agriculture Sector: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach for Bangladesh (1971–2020)
Open accessAbstract
Agriculture, Food security, Climate change, and food import are vital components of an economy. This article empirically explored the long-run and short-run impact of these variables on the economic development of Bangladesh by employing the ARDL model over the period from 1971 to 2020. The outcome of the F-bounds test confirmed the existence of a no long-run relationship among the variables examined, and hence, the appropriate model is ARDL. The study then analysed the short-run impact of agriculture, food security, food import and climate change on economic growth. The short-run and long-run coefficients revealed a positive and significant impact of the agriculture sectors on economic growth in Bangladesh in the short-run and long-run. Findings further showed that climate change and food security have a positive and insignificant impact on economic development. Food import has a negative and insignificant impact on economic growth in the short-run and an insignificant positive impact in the long-run+. Therefore, the study concludes that Bangladesh should invest in the agriculture sector as an engine of economic growth. Climate change, food security and food imports are essential for Bangladesh's economy.
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Economic growth in Bangladesh has a positive long-term impact on food security, but this relationship can be destabilized by external shocks such as climate change or global market fluctuations.
“research indicates that economic growth in Bangladesh has a positive long-term impact on food security, but this relationship can be destabilized by external shocks such as climate change or global market fluctuations (Ceesay and Fanneh 2022).”
From Food Financialization: Impact of Derivatives and Index Funds on Agri-Food Market Volatility (2024) · cites this paper as Ceesay and Fanneh 2022
The long-run results (p. 102) find that agricultural growth positively affects economic growth, not that economic growth improves food security. The Introduction says climate change affects food production in Bangladesh, but the paper does not establish that climate change or global market fluctuations destabilize the claimed growth–food-security relationship. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredCountries can be significantly affected by food security, particularly in regions where agricultural production is a primary economic driver.
“Countries can be significantly affected by food security, particularly in regions where agricultural production is a primary economic driver (Ceesay and Fanneh 2022).”
From Food Financialization: Impact of Derivatives and Index Funds on Agri-Food Market Volatility (2024) · cites this paper as Ceesay and Fanneh 2022
The Introduction describes agriculture as a pillar of Bangladesh’s economy, and the Literature review calls food security crucial to the country’s economy. But the Conclusion says food security’s measured influence on economic growth was insignificant in both the short and long run. The paper also studies Bangladesh, not countries generally. (LLM, conf=0.86)
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References 16 · Cited by 13
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- Ceesay, E. K. (2020). Does Flood Disaster Lessen GDP Growth. Evidence from the Gambia's Manufacturing and Agricultural Sectors, 11, 404. https://doi.org/10.35248/2157- 7463.20. · DOI
- Harris, R., & Sollis, R. (2003). Applied time series modelling and forecasting. Wiley. International Monetary Fund. (2020). Progress report to the IMFC on the activities of the independent evaluation office of the IMF. Policy Papers, 2020(021). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513540559.007 · DOI
- Authors
- Ceesay, E. K., & Fanneh, M. M.
- Affiliations
- West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (GH)
- University of the Gambia (GM)
- Venue
- Economics, Management and Sustainability
- Publisher
- Centre of Sociological Research, NGO
- Published
- 2022-05-17
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 95-106
- ISSN
- 2520-6303 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4378717123
- Cited by
- 13
- References
- 16
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 2
- FWCI
- 2.07
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- diamond
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Economics Management and Sustainability (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- CyberLeninK (CyberLeninka) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agricultural Economics and Practices
- Social Sciences › Safety Research › Agricultural economics and policies
- Keywords
- economic growth, climate change, agricultural sector, food security, food imports, Bangladesh, agricultural investment
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