Vital Signs : Changes in Firearm Homicide and Suicide Rates — United States, 2019–2020
Open accessAbstract
INTRODUCTION: The majority of homicides (79%) and suicides (53%) in the United States involved a firearm in 2020. High firearm homicide and suicide rates and corresponding inequities by race and ethnicity and poverty level represent important public health concerns. This study examined changes in firearm homicide and firearm suicide rates coinciding with the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. METHODS: National vital statistics and population data were integrated with urbanization and poverty measures at the county level. Population-based firearm homicide and suicide rates were examined by age, sex, race and ethnicity, geographic area, level of urbanization, and level of poverty. RESULTS: From 2019 to 2020, the overall firearm homicide rate increased 34.6%, from 4.6 to 6.1 per 100,000 persons. The largest increases occurred among non-Hispanic Black or African American males aged 10-44 years and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) males aged 25-44 years. Rates of firearm homicide were lowest and increased least at the lowest poverty level and were higher and showed larger increases at higher poverty levels. The overall firearm suicide rate remained relatively unchanged from 2019 to 2020 (7.9 to 8.1); however, in some populations, including AI/AN males aged 10-44 years, rates did increase. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the firearm homicide rate in the United States reached its highest level since 1994, with substantial increases among several population subgroups. These increases have widened disparities in rates by race and ethnicity and poverty level. Several increases in firearm suicide rates were also observed. Implementation of comprehensive strategies employing proven approaches that address underlying economic, physical, and social conditions contributing to the risks for violence and suicide is urgently needed to reduce these rates and disparities.
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Nationwide, firearm violence surged during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“nationwide, firearm violence surged during the COVID-19 pandemic.34”
From The Peacemaker Fellowship and Urban Gun Violence in Richmond, California (2026) · cites this paper as [34]
The 'What is added by this report?' section reports that the U.S. firearm homicide rate rose nearly 35% in 2020, coincident with the COVID-19 pandemic. But it says the overall firearm suicide rate remained nearly level, so the broader claim that firearm violence surged is supported for homicide, not for both outcomes the paper examines. The Discussion also cautions that the study cannot attribute the increase to the pandemic. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredA sensitivity analysis was conducted by truncating the study period at 2019 to address the threat to internal validity posed by potentially differential pandemic-related shocks across donors.
“Acknowledging the national surge in firearm violence that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic,34 we conducted a sensitivity analysis by truncating the study period at 2019 to address the threat to internal validity posed by the potentially differential pandemic-related shocks across donors (Table).”
From The Peacemaker Fellowship and Urban Gun Violence in Richmond, California (2026) · cites this paper as [34]
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References 15 · Cited by 202
- Authors
- Kegler, S. R., Simon, T. R., Zwald, M. L., Chen, M. S., Mercy, J. A., Jones, C. M., Mercado-Crespo, M. C., Blair, J. M., Stone, D. M., Ottley, P. G., & Dills, J.
- Affiliations
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
- Corresponding author
- Kegler, Scott R.
- Venue
- MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report
- Published
- 2022-05-10
- Volume
- 71
- Issue
- 19
- Pages
- 656-663
- ISSN
- 0149-2195 (ISSN-L)
- 1545-861X
- PMC
- PMC9098246
- OpenAlex
- W4280499362
- Cited by
- 202
- References
- 15
- Citations by year
- 2026: 30 · 2025: 37 · 2024: 51 · 2023: 59 · 2022: 25
- FWCI
- 33.02
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- diamond
- doi.org
- Locations
- MMWR Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, public-domain)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Health › Gun Ownership and Violence Research
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Homicide, Infanticide, and Child Abuse
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Suicide and Self-Harm Studies
- Keywords
- firearm homicide, firearm suicide, COVID-19 pandemic, racial and ethnic disparities, poverty, Black men, urbanization, violence prevention
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, Cause of Death, Firearms, Homicide, Humans, Male, Population Surveillance, Suicide, United States, Vital Signs, Pandemics
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