Robots, Tasks and Trade
Open accessAbstract
This paper examines the effects of robotization on trade patterns, wages and welfare. It develops a Ricardian model with two-stage production and trade in intermediate and final goods in which robots can take over some tasks previously performed by humans in a subset of industries. An increase in robot adoption in the North reduces the cost of production and thereby impacts trade in final and intermediate goods with the South. The empirical analysis uses ordinary least squares and instrumental variable regressions exploiting variation in exposure to robots across countries and sectors. Both reveal that greater robot intensity in own production leads to: (i) a rise in imports sourced from less developed countries in the same industry; and (ii) an even stronger increase in exports to those countries. Counterfactual simulations indicate that Northern robotization raises domestic welfare, but initially depresses wages. However, this adverse effect is likely to be reversed by further reductions in robot prices. Northern robotization may lead to higher wages and welfare in the South.
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Automation of certain stages of production may increase demand for offshore components that are harder to automate and may increase the propensity to offshore manufacturing at the firm level.
“In sum, automation of certain stages of production may well increase the demand for offshore components that are harder to automate, and may well increase the propensity to offshore manufacturing at the firm level, in line with the findings of Artuc et al. (2018) and Stapleton and Webb (2020).”
From De-Globalisation? Global Value Chains in the Post-COVID-19 Age (2020) · cites this paper as Artuc et al. (2018)
The indexed paper description (section and page unavailable) reports that greater robot intensity increases imports from less-developed countries in the same industry, supporting the possibility of more offshore sourcing. It does not establish that the imported components are harder to automate or that individual firms become more likely to offshore manufacturing. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredAutomation might have a positive effect on offshoring in less developed economies.
“while automation might have a positive effect on offshoring in less developed economies (as documented by Artuc et al., 2018, or Stapleton and Webb, 2020)”
From De-Globalisation? Global Value Chains in the Post-COVID-19 Age (2020) · cites this paper as Artuc et al., 2018
Industry-level evidence suggests that automation in industrial countries has boosted imports from developing countries, and firm-level data from Spain confirm these findings.
“Artuc et al. (2018) and the World Development Report (2020, Chapter 6) present industry -level evidence suggesting that automation in industrial countries appears to have, in fact, boosted imports from developing countries.”
From De-Globalisation? Global Value Chains in the Post-COVID-19 Age (2020) · cites this paper as Artuc et al. (2018)
The matching passage is labeled “Abstract” in the repository entry (no section or page given), rather than a passage from the paper’s full text. A search for the industry-level import finding returned no body-text passage, so the claim cannot be verified under the stated evidence rule. The Spain firm-level finding is not part of the verbatim citing sentence attributed to Artuc et al. (LLM, conf=0.70)
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Cited by 45
- Authors
- Artuc, E., Bastos, P., & Rijkers, B.
- ORCID
- Rijkers, Bob
- Venue
- World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks
- Publisher
- World Bank, Washington, DC
- Published
- 2018-12
- OpenAlex
- W2903804453
- Cited by
- 45
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 6
- Type
- report
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- The World Bank Open Knowledge Repository (World Bank) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Global trade and economics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Keywords
- robotization, automation, international trade, Ricardian model, two-stage production, intermediate goods trade, wages, welfare effects, robot adoption, developing countries, trade patterns, counterfactual simulation
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