The DOI matches its Crossref record.
Deterrence and the Death Penalty
Open accessAbstract
Many studies during the past few decades have sought to determine whether the death penalty has any deterrent effect on homicide rates. Researchers have reached widely varying, even contradictory, conclusions. Some studies have concluded that the threat of capital punishment deters murders, saving large numbers of lives; other studies have concluded that executions actually increase homicides; still others, that executions have no effect on murder rates. Commentary among researchers, advocates, and policymakers on the scientific validity of the findings has sometimes been acrimonious. Against this backdrop, the National Research Council report Deterrence and the Death Penalty assesses whether the available evidence provides a scientific basis for answering questions of if and how the death penalty affects homicide rates. This new report from the Committee on Law and Justice concludes that research to date on the effect of capital punishment on homicide rates is not useful in determining whether the death penalty increases, decreases, or has no effect on these rates. The key question is whether capital punishment is less or more effective as a deterrent than alternative punishments, such as a life sentence without the possibility of parole. Yet none of the research that has been done accounted for the possible effect of noncapital punishments on homicide rates. The report recommends new avenues of research that may provide broader insight into any deterrent effects from both capital and noncapital punishments.
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Citations
Cited by
The Growth of Incarceration in the United States: Exploring Causes and Consequences
National Research Council (2014) · National Academies Press eBooks · doi:10.17226/18613 · Cited by 648
Self-citationChater, N., & Loewenstein, G. (2023) · Behavioral and Brain Sciences · doi:10.1017/s0140525x22002023 · Cited by 710
Deterrence: A Review of the Evidence by a Criminologist for Economists
Nagin, D. S. (2013) · Annual Review of Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-economics-072412-131310 · Cited by 417
The Intelligent Lockdown: Compliance with COVID-19 Mitigation Measures in the NetherlandsPreprint
Kuiper, M. E., de Bruijn, A. L., Folmer, C. R., Olthuis, E., Brownlee, M., Kooistra, E. B., Fine, A., & van Rooij, B. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.31234/osf.io/5wdb3 · Cited by 123
Modernizing the Bradford Hill criteria for assessing causal relationships in observational data
Cox, L. A. (2018) · Critical Reviews in Toxicology · doi:10.1080/10408444.2018.1518404 · Cited by 108
Remodeling American Sentencing: A Ten‐Step Blueprint for Moving Past Mass Incarceration
Tonry, M. (2014) · Criminology & Public Policy · doi:10.1111/1745-9133.12097 · Cited by 86
Communicating uncertainty in policy analysis
Manski, C. F. (2019) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1722389115 · Cited by 78
Kooistra, E. B., Folmer, C. R., Kuiper, M. E., Olthuis, E., Brownlee, M., Fine, A., & van Rooij, B. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.31234/osf.io/zuc23 · Cited by 57
Deterrence and the Death Penalty
Siennick, S. E. (2012) · Criminology & Public Policy · doi:10.1111/j.1745-9133.2012.00833.x · Cited by 51
Deterrence Effects: The Role of Authoritarian Leadership in Controlling Employee Workplace Deviance
Zheng, Y., Huang, X., Graham, L., Redman, T., & Hu, S. (2020) · Management and Organization Review · doi:10.1017/mor.2019.50 · Cited by 42
On the Dual Motivational Force of Legitimate Authority
Jackson, J. (2015) · Nebraska Symposium on Motivation/The Nebraska symposium on motivation · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-16151-8_7 · Cited by 31
Race, Crime, and Criminal Justice: Fifty Years Since The Challenge of Crime in a Free Society
Fernandes, A. D., & Crutchfield, R. D. (2018) · Criminology & Public Policy · doi:10.1111/1745-9133.12361 · Cited by 32
Aneja, A., Donohue, J. J., & Zhang, A. (2012) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w18294 · Cited by 30
Partially Identified Treatment Effects Under Imperfect Compliance: The Case of Domestic Violence
Siddique, Z. (2013) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.2013.779836 · Cited by 27
The Jolly Hangman, the Jailed Journalist, and the Decline of Singapore’s Death Penalty
Johnson, D. T. (2012) · Asian Journal of Criminology · doi:10.1007/s11417-012-9143-1 · Cited by 26
Scientific Disintegrity as a Public Bad
Engel, C. (2015) · Perspectives on Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/1745691615577865 · Cited by 28
Misspecified Mean Function Regression
Berk, R. A., Brown, L., Buja, A., George, E. I., Pitkin, E., Zhang, K., & Zhao, L. H. (2014) · Sociological Methods & Research · doi:10.1177/0049124114526375 · Cited by 26
Death Penalty Abolition, the Right to Life, and Necessity
Jones, B. (2022) · Human Rights Review · doi:10.1007/s12142-022-00677-x · Cited by 18
Breaking the Cycle of Violent Crime and Punishment: The Promise of Neuronormalization
Denson, T. F. (2020) · Social Issues and Policy Review · doi:10.1111/sipr.12076 · Cited by 17
Trust in the Twenty-First Century
Tyler, T. R. (2015) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-22261-5_12 · Cited by 16
Statistical Learning as a Regression Problem
Berk, R. A. (2020) · Springer texts in statistics · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-40189-4_1 · Cited by 12
On the Deterrent Effect of Stop, Question, and Frisk
Apel, R. J. (2015) · Criminology & Public Policy · doi:10.1111/1745-9133.12175 · Cited by 14
Empirical Evaluation of Law: The Dream and the Nightmare
Donohue, J. J. (2015) · American Law and Economics Review · doi:10.1093/aler/ahv007 · Cited by 12
Messing Up Texas?: A Re-Analysis of the Effects of Executions on Homicides
Brandt, P. T., & Kovandzic, T. V. (2015) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0138143 · Cited by 11
Oliphant, S. N. (2022) · Criminology & Public Policy · doi:10.1111/1745-9133.12601 · Cited by 10
Is life without parole an effective way to reduce violent crime? An empirical assessment
Kleinstuber, R., & Coldsmith, J. (2020) · Criminology & Public Policy · doi:10.1111/1745-9133.12496 · Cited by 9
Psychology and the deterrence of corporate crime
Tyler, T. R. (2018) · Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks · doi:10.4337/9781783474479.00008 · Cited by 9
Kebijakan Formulasi Pidana Mati Bersyarat dalam Perspektif Pembaharuan Hukum Pidana Indonesia
Putra, A. W., & Sutanti, R. D. (2020) · Jurnal Pembangunan Hukum Indonesia · doi:10.14710/jphi.v2i3.319-330 · Cited by 7
Data Analysis in Predicting Crime : Predictive Policing
de Carvalho, A. D. S. M., & Pedrosa, I. (2021) · Iberian Conference on Information Systems and Technologies (CISTI) · doi:10.23919/cisti52073.2021.9476393 · Cited by 7
Growing Up in Law and Society: The Pulls of Policy and Methods
Lempert, R. (2013) · Annual Review of Law and Social Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-lawsocsci-102612-134032 · Cited by 7
A Factful Perspective on Capital Punishment
Johnson, D. T. (2019) · Journal of Human Rights Practice · doi:10.1093/jhuman/huz018 · Cited by 6
The Short-Term Deterrent Effect of Executions: An Analysis of Daily Homicide Counts
Hong, M., & Kleck, G. (2018) · Crime & Delinquency · doi:10.1177/0011128717719514 · Cited by 6
Exploring sources of public attitudes toward capital punishment in Taiwan
Cao, L., Lai, Y., & Huang, C.-C. (2020) · Crime Law and Social Change · doi:10.1007/s10611-020-09913-2 · Cited by 5
Profitable third-party punishment destabilizes cooperation
Alam, R., & Rai, T. S. (2025) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2508479122 · Cited by 4
Mears, D. P., & Cochran, J. C. (2019) · Cited by 4
Don’t Mess with Texas: Stories of Punishment from Lone Star Museums
Thurston, H. (2017) · Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks · doi:10.1057/978-1-137-56135-0_28 · Cited by 3
Homo Juridicus: Questioning Legal Assumptions About BehaviorPreprint
van Rooij, B. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3572602 · Cited by 3
Statistical Learning as a Regression Problem
Berk, R. A. (2016) · Springer texts in statistics · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-44048-4_1 · Cited by 2
Deterrence and the Death Penalty: Why the Statistics should be Ignored
Nagin, D. S. (2014) · Significance · doi:10.1111/j.1740-9713.2014.00733.x · Cited by 2
Perry, A. (2016) · Springer series on evidence-based crime policy · doi:10.1007/978-1-4939-3477-5_6 · Cited by 2
Chaemsaithong, K. (2022) · Critical Discourse Studies · doi:10.1080/17405904.2022.2063149 · Cited by 2
Death Penalty and Right to Life: A Comparison between International Bill of Human Rights and Islam
Muhammad, M., Alfath, K. N., & Saefudin, Y. (2023) · Kosmik Hukum · doi:10.30595/kosmikhukum.v23i3.18390 · Cited by 2
Criminology: Development and Current Status of the Discipline
Wellford, C. F. (2015) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-08-097086-8.45052-x · Cited by 2
The Cost of Colorado's Death PenaltyPreprint
Marceau, J. F., & Whitson, H. (2013) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2213921 · Cited by 2
How Punishment Affects Crime: An Integrated Understanding of the Behavioral Mechanisms of PunishmentPreprint
van Rooij, B., Kuiper, M. E., & Piquero, A. R. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4790878 · Cited by 2
Easton, S. M., & Piper, C. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192863294.003.0003 · Cited by 1
When does crime respond to punishment?: Evidence from drug-free school zones
Gonzalez, R. M., Jabri, R., & Komisarow, S. (2025) · Journal of Urban Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jue.2025.103763 · Cited by 1
Causal Concepts, Principles, and Algorithms
Cox, L. A., Popken, D. A., & Sun, R. X. (2018) · International series in management science/operations research/International series in operations research & management science · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-78242-3_2 · Cited by 1
Methods of Causal Analysis for Health Risk Assessment with Observational Data
Cox, L. A. (2020) · International series in management science/operations research/International series in operations research & management science · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-57358-4_9 · Cited by 1
Capital Punishment/Death Penalty
Radelet, M. L., & Phillips, S. (2018) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108550710.026 · Cited by 1
Easton, S. M., & Piper, C. (2022) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192863294.001.0001 · Cited by 1
Niggli, M. A., & Maeder, S. (2014) · Asian Journal of Criminology · doi:10.1007/s11417-014-9185-7 · Cited by 1
Eastaugh, C. (2016) · Surrey Research Insight Open Access (The University of Surrey)
A call to reinstate Pakistan's death penalty moratorium
Ali, S. I., Khan, A., Fatima, H., et al. (2017) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(17)33110-0
War Abroad and Homicides at Home: Evidence from the United States*
Bunte, J. B., Connell, N. M., & Powell, Z. A. (2018) · Social Forces · doi:10.1093/sf/soy100
Zašto je važna borba protiv smrtne kazne?
Pravni fakultet Sveučilišta u Zagrebu, Z., & Šimonović, I. (2020) · Zbornik Pravnog fakulteta u Zagrebu · doi:10.3935/zpfz.70.23.02
Gilbert, J. V., Parker, L., & Chalfin, A. J. (2021) · The Encyclopedia of Research Methods in Criminology and Criminal Justice · doi:10.1002/9781119111931.ch109
The Science and Art of Conducting, Evaluating, and Using Research: Practical Steps
Mears, D. P., & Cochran, J. C. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108149815.016
Mears, D. P., & Cochran, J. C. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108149815.017
Science and Criminological and Criminal Justice Research
Mears, D. P., & Cochran, J. C. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108149815.004
The Role of Theory in Research
Mears, D. P., & Cochran, J. C. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108149815.007
Mears, D. P., & Cochran, J. C. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108149815.018
Donohue, J. J. (2019) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-4614-7753-2_21
Donohue, J. J. (2014) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-4614-7883-6_21-1
Lynch, M. (2015) · Emerging Trends in the Social and Behavioral Sciences · doi:10.1002/9781118900772.etrds0033
Reconsidering the Abolition of Capital Punishment in Ghana
Obiri-Korang, P. (2022) · Bratislava Law Review · doi:10.46282/blr.2022.6.1.284
BAD OUTCOMES, GOOD INTENTIONS: APPROACHING THE POTENTIAL MISUSE OF CRIME DATA BY POLICYMAKERSPreprint
Castro-Toledo, F. J., & Gómez-Bellvís, A. B. (2022) · doi:10.31235/osf.io/g7dhp
The Effect of “Carrot and Stick” Formal Control on Deviant Workplace Behaviour: A Proposed Framework
Ibrahim, U. S. G., Yusof, R., & Ibrahim, H. I. (2023) · Asian Journal of Research in Business and Management · doi:10.55057/ajrbm.2022.4.4.6
Easton, S. M., & Piper, C. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192863294.002.0007
Easton, S. M., & Piper, C. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192863294.003.0005
Easton, S. M., & Piper, C. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192863294.002.0008
Easton, S. M., & Piper, C. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192863294.002.0004
Easton, S. M., & Piper, C. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192863294.003.0012
Easton, S. M., & Piper, C. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192863294.003.0001
Court orders for young offenders
Easton, S. M., & Piper, C. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192863294.003.0011
Easton, S. M., & Piper, C. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192863294.003.0002
Table of International Treaties and Conventions
Easton, S. M., & Piper, C. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192863294.002.0012
Impact on victims and offenders
Easton, S. M., & Piper, C. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192863294.003.0007
Easton, S. M., & Piper, C. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192863294.002.0009
Easton, S. M., & Piper, C. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192863294.002.0011
Easton, S. M., & Piper, C. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192863294.003.0009
Instead of punishment? Restorative justice, child welfare, and medical treatment
Easton, S. M., & Piper, C. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192863294.003.0006
Punishment and rehabilitation in the community
Easton, S. M., & Piper, C. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192863294.003.0010
Easton, S. M., & Piper, C. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192863294.002.0010
Easton, S. M., & Piper, C. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192863294.003.0008
Easton, S. M., & Piper, C. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192863294.003.0004
Easton, S. M., & Piper, C. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192863294.002.0003
Fact or Fiction? Deconstructing the Death Penalty as a Deterrent to Crime in ASEAN
Capaldi, M. P. (2023) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-981-19-8840-0_2
Credible Social Planning under Uncertainty
Manski, C. F. (2023) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w31456
Bad Outcomes, Good Intentions: Approaching the Potential Misuse of Crime Data by Policy Makers
Castro-Toledo, F. J., & Gómez-Bellvís, A. B. (2024) · Bristol University Press eBooks · doi:10.56687/9781529232073-019
Tonry, M., & d’Elba, I. (2020) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780195320503.002.0006
Tonry, M. (2020) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780195320503.002.0004
La pena de muerte como factor disuasorio del crimen: Un análisis estadístico
Pazmiño-López, J. N., & Miranda-Villacís, A. D. L. C. (2024) · RICEd Revista de Investigación en Ciencias de la Educación · doi:10.53877/riced2.3-15
Li, J., & Jiang, J. (2025) · Crime Law and Social Change · doi:10.1007/s10611-025-10228-3
Metadata
- Authors
- National Research Council
- Corresponding author
- National Research Council
- Venue
- National Academies Press eBooks
- Publisher
- National Academies Press
- Published
- 2012-04-26
- OpenAlex
- W1598111140
- Semantic Scholar
- 173f3d9500896dda6dcb3d58203e515b5a7932bb
- Cited by
- 95
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2025: 3 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 4 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 7.28
- Type
- book
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- National Academies Press eBooks (publishedVersion)
- CrimRxiv (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- eYLS (Yale Law School) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Torture, Ethics, and Law
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Law, Economics, and Judicial Systems
- Social Sciences › Law › Criminal Law and Policy
- Keywords
- death penalty, deterrence, homicide rates, murder, life imprisonment without parole, criminal justice policy, research validity
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.