Lowest-low fertility in the Republic of Korea: Causes, consequences and policy responses

Abstract

For the past several decades, in rich and poor countries alike, life expectancy at birth has seemed to rise. Contrary to the predictions of demographers, the expected lifespan at birth has increased nearly linearly, in developed countries as well as the developing countries of Africa, South America and Asia as if there were no upper limits. More recently, fertility rates appear to be no exception to that sort of convergence. Fertility has declined dramatically almost everywhere, first in European countries and later in non-European countries. Demographers predicted that fertility would stabilize around replacement levels once the fertility transition from high to low was completed in the twentieth century. Unfortunately, declining fertility has not stabilized in developed countries. For years, fertility has hovered below the replacement level in developed European countries. As if in imitation, fertility in developing countries also has approached replacement level, or in many cases, dipped below. As is the case for mortality, fertility in both rich and poor countries is certain to converge towards lower fertility.