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Development and transport implications of automated vehicles in the Netherlands: scenarios for 2030 and 2050
Open accessAbstract
Automated driving technology is emerging. Yet, little is known in the literature about when automated vehicles will reach the market, how penetration rates will evolve and to what extent this new transport technology will affect transport demand and planning. This study uses scenario analysis to identify plausible future development paths of automated vehicles in the Netherlands and to estimate potential implications for traffic, travel behaviour and transport planning on a time horizon up to 2030 and 2050. The scenario analysis was performed through a series of three workshops engaging a group of diverse experts. Sixteen key factors and five driving forces behind them were identified as critical in determining future development of automated vehicles in the Netherlands. Four scenarios were constructed assuming combinations of high or low technological development and restrictive or supportive policies for automated vehicles (AV …in standby, AV …in bloom, AV …in demand, AV …in doubt). According to the scenarios, fully automated vehicles are expected to be commercially available between 2025 and 2045, and to penetrate the market rapidly after their introduction. Penetration rates are expected to vary among different scenarios between 1% and 11% (mainly conditionally automated vehicles) in 2030 and between 7% and 61% (mainly fully automated vehicles) in 2050. Complexity of the urban environment and unexpected incidents may influence development path of automated vehicles. Certain implications on mobility are expected in all scenarios, although there is great variation in the impacts among the scenarios. Measures to curb growth of travel and subsequent externalities are expected in three out of the four scenarios.
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Metadata
- Authors
- Milakis, D., Snelder, M., Arem, B. V., Wee, B. V., & Homem de Almeida Correia, G.
- Affiliations
- Delft University of Technology (NL)
- Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (NL)
- Venue
- European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research
- Publisher
- TU Delft OPEN Publishing
- Published
- 2017-01-01
- Volume
- 17
- Issue
- 1
- ISSN
- 1567-7133 (ISSN-L)
- 1567-7141
- OpenAlex
- W2592807484
- Cited by
- 194
- References
- 40
- Citations by year
- 2026: 14 · 2025: 19 · 2024: 20 · 2023: 22 · 2022: 23 · 2021: 26 · 2020: 21 · 2019: 24 · 2018: 19 · 2017: 6
- FWCI
- 12.15
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- diamond
- doi.org
- Locations
- European journal of transport and infrastructure research (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Repository hosted by TU Delft Library (TU Delft) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- TNO Repository (submittedVersion)
- Research Repository (Delft University of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Transportation › Transportation and Mobility Innovations
- Social Sciences › Transportation › Transportation Planning and Optimization
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure
- Keywords
- autonomous vehicles, autonomous driving, future scenarios, travel demand, travel behavior, transportation planning, policy scenarios, mobility impacts, Netherlands
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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