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Are Forecasting Models Usable for Policy Analysis?
Abstract
In this article, Christopher A. Sims argues the answer to his title is yes. Sims explains that any decisionmaking model must incorporate some identifying assumptions to enable it to forecast the effects of alternative decisions. He argues that although all identifying assumptions in econometric policymaking models are of uncertain validity, those incorporated in vector autoregression (VAR) forecasting models have the advantage of allowing their uncertainty to be measured. Sims concludes by demonstrating a method for identifying a small macroeconomic VAR model so that it can be used to analyze monetary policy
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Citations
Cited by
What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure
Uhlig, H. (2005) · Journal of Monetary Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.05.007 · Cited by 2,307
What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?
Mountford, A., & Uhlig, H. (2009) · Journal of Applied Econometrics · doi:10.1002/jae.1079 · Cited by 1,349
Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach
Kim, S., & Roubini, N. (2000) · Journal of Monetary Economics · doi:10.1016/s0304-3932(00)00010-6 · Cited by 915
Internet usage, electricity consumption and economic growth in Australia: A time series evidence
Salahuddin, M., & Alam, K. (2015) · Telematics and Informatics · doi:10.1016/j.tele.2015.04.011 · Cited by 396
The effects of the oil price and oil price volatility on inflation in Turkey
Köse, N., & Ünal, E. (2021) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2021.120392 · Cited by 81
Metadata
- Authors
- Sims, C.
- Venue
- Quarterly Review
- Publisher
- Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
- Published
- 1986-12
- Volume
- 10
- Issue
- 1
- ISSN
- 0271-5287 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2996121507
- Cited by
- 1,197
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 17.54
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Are Forecasting Models Usable for Policy Analysis? https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.21034/qr.1011
- The paper
- Sims, C. (1986). Are Forecasting Models Usable for Policy Analysis? Quarterly Review. https://doi.org/10.21034/qr.1011
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
