Evidential Impact of Base Rates
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Considering base rates can improve judgmental accuracy.
“Considering base rates can also improve judgmental accuracy (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973; Tversky & Kahneman, 1981).”
From Developing expert political judgment: The impact of training and practice on judgmental accuracy in geopolitical forecasting tournaments (2016) · cites this paper as Tversky & Kahneman, 1981
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Chang, W., Chen, E., Mellers, B., & Tetlock, P. (2016) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.1017/s1930297500004599 · Cited by 89 · see citing works
Can cancer researchers accurately judge whether preclinical reports will reproduce?
Benjamin, D., Mandel, D. R., & Kimmelman, J. (2017) · PLOS Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.2002212 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
- Authors
- Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D.
- Publisher
- Defense Technical Information Center
- Published
- 1981-05-15
- OpenAlex
- W4251378533
- Cited by
- 80
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 2 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 3 · 2014: 1 · 2013: 1 · 2012: 4
- Type
- report
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Social Sciences › Law › Legal processes and jurisprudence
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
- Keywords
- base rates, Bayesian inference, weight of evidence, prior probability
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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