Annual energy outlook 1990 with projections to 2010

Abstract

The Annual Energy Outlook 1990 (AEO) is EIA's annual statement of projected energy trends for the long term. It presents trends in energy supply and demand based upon assumptions about world oil prices, economic growth, and other factors affecting energy markets. These trends have implications for national energy security, the environmental impact of energy use and production, and the role of technology in shaping the energy future. The forecasts for this AEO have been extended to 2010, a 20-year perspective. Projecting for a longer time horizon than used for previous AEO's introduces additional uncertainty in the forecasts for later years. Consequently, it is important to consider the range of possible futures contained in the five cases contained here, rather than focus solely on the base case. Five forecast cases are presented: a base case, low and high world oil price growth, and low and high macroeconomic growth. The base case is the central forecast. The four other cases are presented to reflect the uncertainty inherent in any forecast of the future. They are based on reasonable lower and upper bounds on two key factors that affect energy trends--world oil price and the rate of economic growth.