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U.S. - China: “Power Transition” and the Outlines of “Conflict Bipolarity”

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Degterev, Denis Andreevich, Ramich, Mirzet Safetovich, Tsvyk, Anatoly Vladimirovich·2021·Vestnik RUDN. International Relations
DOI 10.22363/2313-0660-2021-21-2-210-231
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Abstract

This article focuses on the phenomenon of global rivalry between China and the United States in terms of power transition theory, which is scientifically new and relevant due to the increased attention to the so-called Thucydides trap, in which, as some experts claim, both states have fallen. This paper presents a different vision of the global rivalry for leadership in the shaping of a new world order, which has already taken the form of overt non-violent confrontation and manifests itself in technological and trade wars as well as scientific and cultural rivalries. Nevertheless, despite the non-violent nature of the rivalry, this process is followed by an increase in the military capabilities of states, mainly projected in the basins of the Pacific and Indian Oceans (Indo-Pacific region). The methodological basis of the paper is power transition theory, which has been developed over the past 60 years by A.F. Organsky, J. Kugler, D. Lemke, R. Tammen and other researchers, united in the TransResearch Consortium. The authors argue that the analytical prism of this theory is more relevant to the analysis of current global rivalry than the classical neorealist balance of power approach. Through the prism of the theory the issues of rebalancing the global system of economic governance are analyzed. Also, a comparative analysis of the US-Japanese and US-Chinese trade and technological wars is carried out. Both the military and aggregate capabilities of two countries on a global scale and in the Indo-Pacific region are examined. The conclusion contains findings and comments on the impact of U.S. - China rivalry on the system of international relations.

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Metadata

Authors
Degterev, D. A., Ramich, M. S., & Tsvyk, A. V.
Affiliations
  • Peoples' Friendship University of Russia (RU)
  • Government of Russia (RU)
ORCID
Venue
Vestnik RUDN. International Relations
Publisher
Peoples' Friendship University of Russia
Published
2021-12-15
Volume
21
Issue
2
Pages
210-231
ISSN
  • 2313-0660 (ISSN-L)
  • 2313-0679
DOI
10.22363/2313-0660-2021-21-2-210-231
OpenAlex
W3174444822
Cited by
40
References
1
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 3
FWCI
27.42
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Vestnik RUDN International Relations (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Funders
  • Princeton University
  • University of Oxford
  • Russian Foundation for Basic Research
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › International Relations and Foreign Policy
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › COVID-19, Geopolitics, Technology, Migration
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › World Systems and Global Transformations
Keywords
US-China rivalry, power transition theory, Thucydides trap, new world order, trade war, economic governance, balance of power, Japan-US comparison

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