Global Energy -- Assessing the Future

Abstract

The energy problem is one of cost; i.e., the financial costs of developing resources and the real costs of maintaining an acceptable environmental quality. In forecasting the future of global energy production and use, the authors examine alternative means of producing and transforming energy (including nuclear and solar power, shale oil, biomass, coal, and synthetic fuels), and the key factors influencing energy consumption, such as population and gross national product. Using the IEA/ORAU Long-Term Global Energy Model, they develop a baseline forecast of global energy production and use, but explore alternate futures. They conclude that the long-term global energy system will slowly evolve into a diversity of options that will grow rather than shrink. They also conclude that we must learn to live and plan with uncertainty about the details of the future. 60 figures, 120 tables.