Issues, Party Choices, and Presidential Votes

Abstract

This paper presents an alternative interpretation of the role played by issues and people's evaluations of the parties' positions on different issues in the electoral process. The statistical model presented and estimated in the paper departs from previous studies by hypothesizing a model in which people's issue positions, their evaluations of the parties' positions, and the strength of their party identifications are simultaneously related to each other and are thus endogenous to the electoral process. Expected votes are then determined by party evaluations. The model is estimated with data from the 1964 Election Study of the Survey Research Center. The most important influences are the effects of people's issue positions on their evaluations of the parties and the influence of these evaluations on party identifications and on voting decisions. The paper concludes by discussing the estimated model's implications for evaluations of the role of the electoral process in the determination of public policy.