The DOI matches its Crossref record.
Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?
Abstract
Major long-run swings in the U. S. stock market over the past century are broadly consistent with a model driven by changes in current and expected future dividends in which investors must estimate the time-varying long-run dividend growth rate. Such an estimated long-run growth rate resembles a long distributed lag on past dividend growth, and is highly correlated with the level of dividends. Prices therefore respond more than proportionately to long-run movements in dividends. The time-varying component of dividend growth need not be detectable in the dividend data for it to have large effects on stock prices.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cited by
From efficient markets theory to behavioral finance
Shiller, R. J. (2003) · Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/089533003321164967 · Cited by 1,835
Quantile cointegrating regression
Xiao, Z. (2009) · Journal of Econometrics · doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.12.005 · Cited by 431
Metadata
- Authors
- Barsky, R. B., & De Long, J. B.
- Venue
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 1993-05-01
- Volume
- 108
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 291-311
- ISSN
- 0033-5533 (ISSN-L)
- 1531-4650
- OpenAlex
- W2219722162
- Cited by
- 403
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 4.85
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate? https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.2307/2118333
- The paper
- Barsky, R. B., & De Long, J. B. (1993). Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate? The Quarterly Journal of Economics. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118333
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
