Women's Rising Employment and the Future of the Family in Industrial Societies

Abstract

A critical analysis was provided of the economic independence hypothesis and Beckers theories of marriage and family behavior. Historically there have been assessments of the fit between womens labor force participation and patterns of marriage formation divorce and fertility in order to determine how much coincidence played a role. Also examined were how well the theories of womens economic independence explain delayed marriage nonmarriage or both. Empirical evidence at the micro level was used to indicate the extent of support for economic independence theories. Specific attention was directed to Gary Beckers specialization theories; it was posited that specialization might actually put families and marriage at risk. Recent trends have shown a tremendous decline in mens labor market position which theories need to begin addressing. The specialization-trading model of marriage of marital relationships inevitably leads to a prediction of a decline in marriage. Low fertility means reduced need for womens specialization in home production and a low productivity population. A more adaptive family strategy for a modern industrial society would be based on both parents working. Increased womens employment serves as a substitute for the work of their children for enhancing social mobility and as a stabilizing factor in the familys economic equilibrium over the development cycle. When mens economic position and its impact on marriage behavior is modeled by Wilson and Neckerman a threshold effect emerges where for instance the rise of black female-headed families in the US is considered reflective of the decline in the marriageable supply of men. Census data on moderately well educated and less well educated males indicated a deteriorated labor market position between 1950 and 1980. 1) Mens labor market declines accelerated after 1970. 2) 25-34 year old male non-graduates as well as very young men experienced labor market declines. 3) Male high school graduates also suffered declines in employment particularly Blacks. These three trends occurred throughout the declines in prime marrying ages. Chinhui Juhn revealed that mens unemployment declined over time and once out of work there was little reentry into the work force. Deterioration in earnings was also evident. Earnings ratio data can obscure relationships. Mens declining earnings are effecting the ratio because womens earnings have remained stable since the mid 1980s. Even the economic position of college graduates who experienced income declines in the 1970s does not explain the continued rise in delayed marriage by the 1980s.