On simpson's paradox and the sure-thing principle
Abstract
This paradox is the possibility of P(A|B) <P(A|B') even though P(A|B)≥P(A| B') both under the additional condition C and under the complement C' of that condition. Details are given on why this can happen and how extreme the inequalities can be. An example shows that Savage's sure-thing principle (“If you would definitely prefer g to f, either knowing that the event C obtained, or knowing that C did not obtain, then you definitely prefer g to f.”) is not applicable to alternatives f and g that involve sequential operations.
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If data is organized along a certain attribute, and there are multiple independent factors that result in the attribute taking a certain value, analyzing data entries with this value is equivalent to conditioning on it, and may result in spurious patterns of association among these factors.
“if the data is organized along a certain attribute (e.g., the presence of a keyword or hashtag), and there are multiple independent factors that result in the attribute taking a certain value, analyzing data entries with this value is equivalent to conditioning on it, and may result in spurious patterns of association among these factors (Blyth, 1972; Tufekci, 2014).”
From Social Data: Biases, Methodological Pitfalls, and Ethical Boundaries (2019) · cites this paper as Blyth, 1972
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Social Data: Biases, Methodological Pitfalls, and Ethical Boundaries
Olteanu, A., Castillo, C., Diaz, F., & Kıcıman, E. (2019) · Frontiers in Big Data · doi:10.3389/fdata.2019.00013 · Cited by 763 · see citing works
Social Data: Biases, Methodological Pitfalls, and Ethical Boundaries
Olteanu, A., Castillo, C., Diaz, F., & Kiciman, E. (2016) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2886526 · Cited by 763 · see citing works
- Authors
- Blyth, C. R.
- Affiliations
- University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US)
- Corresponding author
- Blyth, Colin R.
- Venue
- Journal of the American Statistical Association
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 1972-06
- Volume
- 67
- Issue
- 338
- Pages
- 364-366
- ISSN
- 0162-1459 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-274X
- OpenAlex
- W1974423219
- Cited by
- 630
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 26 · 2025: 27 · 2024: 31 · 2023: 61 · 2022: 50 · 2021: 51 · 2020: 32 · 2019: 41 · 2018: 40 · 2017: 23 · 2016: 18 · 2015: 23 · 2014: 23 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 20
- FWCI
- 1.88
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of the American Statistical Association (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Probability and Statistical Research
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Keywords
- Simpson's paradox, sure-thing principle, conditional probability
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