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The Probability of Causation under a Stochastic Model for Individual Risk
Abstract
In this paper we offer a mathematical definition for the probability of causation that formalizes the legal and ordinary-language meaning of the term. We show that, under this definition, even the average probability of causation among exposed cases is not identifiable from epidemiologic data. This is because the probability of causation depends both on the unknown mechanisms by which exposure affects disease risk and competing risks, and on the unknown degree of heterogeneity in the background disease risk of the exposed population. We derive the maximum and minimum values for the probability of causation consistent with the observable population quantities. We also derive the relationship of the "assigned share" (excess incidence rate as a proportion of total incidence rate) to the probability of causation.
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Cited by
Causal inference in statistics: An overview
Pearl, J. (2009) · Statistics Surveys · doi:10.1214/09-ss057 · Cited by 2,336
“= x, Y = y) (53) This counterfactual quantity, which Robins and Greenland (1989a) named “probability of causation” and Pearl (2000a, p. 296) named “probability of necessity” (PN), to be distinguished from other nuances of “causation,” is certainly computable from any fully specified structural…”
BackgroundIdentifiability and exchangeability for direct and indirect effects
Robins, J. M., & Greenland, S. (1992) · Epidemiology · doi:10.1097/00001648-199203000-00013 · Cited by 1,793
Self-citationConfounding and Collapsibility in Causal Inference
Greenland, S., Pearl, J., & Robins, J. M. (1999) · Statistical Science · doi:10.1214/ss/1009211805 · Cited by 933
Self-citationAn Introduction to Causal Inference
Pearl, J. (2010) · The International Journal of Biostatistics · doi:10.2202/1557-4679.1203 · Cited by 755
Probabilities of causation: Bounds and identification
Tian, J., & Pearl, J. (2000) · Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence · doi:10.1023/a:1018912507879 · Cited by 179
Metadata
- Authors
- Robins, J., & Greenland, S.
- Venue
- Biometrics
- Publisher
- JSTOR
- Published
- 1989-12
- Volume
- 45
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1125
- ISSN
- 0006-341X (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2068434797
- Cited by
- 167
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 2.76
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Robins, J., & Greenland, S. (1989). The Probability of Causation under a Stochastic Model for Individual Risk. Biometrics. https://doi.org/10.2307/2531765
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